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华夏幸福(600340)2020年中报点评:受疫情短期冲击 双轮驱动渐上正轨

Huaxia Happiness (600340) 2020 Interim Report Review: Due to the short-term impact of the epidemic, two-wheel drive is gradually on the right track

中信證券 ·  Aug 31, 2020 00:00  · Researches

In the first half of the year, the company's business was affected by the epidemic in a short period of time, which was not only reflected in the poor return of sales in regions such as Beijing, but also in the delay in the construction period of commercial business in Wuhan and other regions. We believe that this may directly lead to lower-than-expected earnings this year, and the leverage ratio has not declined in the short term. However, we believe that the operation of the company's business is normal, especially the smooth development of new business, which is likely to improve the overall operation of the company in the future.

The epidemic has had a big impact on the company. In the first half of the year, the company realized operating income of 37.372 billion yuan, down 3.51% from the same period last year, and realized homed net profit of 6.062 billion yuan, down 28.52% from the same period last year. In the first half of 2020, the company achieved sales of 41.93 billion yuan, down 35.0% from the same period last year. This is obviously related to the key areas where the company is located (around Beijing, etc.) affected by the epidemic. The company's Wuhan and other project development progress has also been affected.

The leverage ratio was affected by the epidemic and maintained at a high level. In the first half of 2020, the asset-liability ratio excluding prepaid accounts was 77.5%, the net debt ratio was 191.9%, and the coverage ratio of monetary funds to short-term interest-bearing liabilities was 47.2%. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the company's overall sales rebate is general, the company can not have the conditions to significantly reduce the leverage ratio. The overall average financing cost of the company is 7.96% (7.86% at the end of 2019).

Commercial real estate was promoted in an all-round way. In the first half of the year, the company won a total of four commercial complex projects: Nanjing Campus, Wuhan Zhongbei Road, Harbin Shenha Financial and Technology City, Guangzhou Baietan Project, totaling 210.3 million square meters.

The company also won the bid for the whole process management service of China Merchants Bank global headquarters building project. The company promotes the business of commercial real estate in an all-round way and provides all-round services to Ping An Insurance's real estate allocation. The cash outflow from the company's commercial real estate business was 6.789 billion yuan.

Reduce cost and increase efficiency, and improve the quality of management. Under the difficult objective environment, the company strives to control the cost. In the first half of the year, the company's management expense rate was 6.9%, down 0.4% from the new period, and the sales expense rate was 1.6%, down 0.6% from the same period last year. The company reduces the cost and increases the efficiency, and the management quality has been improved.

Risk factors: the general repayment of the company's industrial metropolis and the increasing risk of book receivables.

Look forward to two-wheel drive, lead out of the company's difficult bottom. The company is not subjectively radical, but sales rebates are subject to objective shocks such as the epidemic, which leads to high leverage. And the company's new commercial real estate business is in the deployment period and must occupy some funds. However, we believe that the company's shareholders are strong, the quality of land for new business development is not low, and the capital allocation in the real estate field of Ping an will be docked in the future. In addition, we think that the market around Beijing and other places is also expected to be extremely successful. Taking into account the impact of the epidemic, we adjusted the company's 2020 / 2021 / 2021 / share EPS forecast to 4.91 / 2021 / share (the original forecast was 5.99 / 2021 / PE). We gave the company a 4-fold PE in 2021 corresponding to the target price of 24.83RMB / share and maintained the "buy" investment rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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