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华大基因(300676):2020年中报超预期

開源證券 ·  Aug 28, 2020 00:00  · Researches

The results of BGI's 2020 mid-year report exceeded expectations. The company achieved operating income of 4.11 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 218.1% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1.65 billion yuan, an increase of 734.2% over the previous year, exceeding the previous increase of 15.3-1.63 billion yuan. Looking at a single quarter, revenue for the second quarter was 3.32 billion yuan, and net profit was 1.51 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations. Two indicators in the semi-annual report are worth paying attention to: inventory of 1.28 billion yuan, an increase of 1 billion yuan over the previous year, an increase of 660 million over the previous year; and advance receipts of 1.29 billion yuan, an increase of 860 million yuan over the previous year. It shows that subsequent performance is still strong. Note in particular that the Q2 COVID-19 test reagent was actually only shipped for one and a half months due to revised instructions. Therefore, we believe that the third quarter will achieve further month-on-month growth, further exceeding market expectations. Our in-depth report “Building a Global Leader in In Vitro Diagnostics” published on June 10, 2020, estimates net profit of 2.7, 17.5, and 2.07 billion dollars in 2020-2022. Considering that the duration of COVID-19 has exceeded our expectations at the time, the profit level of “COVID-19 reagents+services” has also exceeded our expectations, increasing net profit in 2020-2022. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 119.40/105.01/9.427 billion yuan in 2020/2021/2022, net profit of 42.34/31.69/2,638 billion yuan, and corresponding EPS of 10.58/7.92/6.59 yuan/share, respectively. As of the closing price of August 27, 2020, 2020 to 2022 PE was 13.8/18.4/22.1 (original value: 27.07/17.51/2,074 billion yuan). The current market value does not reflect the company's position and pattern in the industry, maintaining a “buy” rating. Relying on the “Fire Eye” laboratory to carry out overseas derivative service and product company business for a long time, it has covered more than 100 countries and regions around the world, and more than 3,000 overseas medical and scientific research institutions have cooperated in Europe, America, Asia Pacific and other regions. By the end of the reporting period, the company's COVID-19 testing products had covered more than 180 countries and regions around the world, operated 58 “Fire Eye” laboratories overseas, distributed in 17 countries (regions) around the world, and is committed to making positive contributions to public health in various countries and regions. As an integrated comprehensive solution service, the global “Fire Eye” laboratory will rely on derivative services and products of these solutions to further expand the international market in the future after undertaking the testing of pathogenic microorganisms for the current COVID-19 pandemic. This is also one of the core logics of our optimism about BGI, and we look forward to verification. Risk warning: product quality issues; price reduction risk; political risk; uncertainty about the epidemic; overseas laboratory operations falling short of expectations, etc.

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