Semi-annual report performance is affected by the epidemic, orderly integration until the performance inflection point, maintain the "increase" rating affected by the epidemic at home and abroad, the company is unable to carry out normal business and the production capacity of upstream suppliers has declined. The price of the company's main packaging materials and plastic parts has increased. H1 achieved a net profit of-57 million yuan in 2020, down 775.77% from the same period last year, and-73 million yuan after deduction. The net profit of Q2 in 2020 was 2 million yuan, down 80% from the same period last year; after deducting it, it was-12 million yuan. The company acquired and consolidated Oclaro assets in April 2019, resulting in an increase in expenses during 2020 compared with the same period last year. At present, operators are still in full swing to build 5G base stations and data centers, as well as the new demand for high-speed products and changes in the demand structure have led to the continued prosperity of the high-speed optical module industry, and the performance will be affected by the epidemic at home and abroad in 2020. We are still optimistic about the explosive performance of the company's two mergers and acquisitions into high-speed optical components and optical modules. We adjust and predict that the net profit of 2020Universe 2021 will be 0.78Universe 1.51 in 2022 (previously 1.17 1.800.261) million, with a year-on-year increase of 256.6% 94.9% 110.3% (previously 438.4% 54.0% 44.9%), and EPS 0.31, 0.60, 1.26 (previously 0.46, 0.71, 1.04) The current share price corresponds to PE of 81.3, 41.7 and 19.8 times, respectively. Relative to comparable companies, there is a certain valuation premium to maintain the "overweight" rating.
The prosperity of Telecom Digital Communication continues, and the optical module has ushered in a golden period of development. the annual performance can be expected to accelerate the global 5G commercial pace to drive the cloud computing industry market demand to rise, driving the high-speed optical module market demand to remain high. It is expected that the high-speed optical module will occupy the main market share in the future, and the industry as a whole will enter the golden development stage of volume and price rise. The market competition in the optical module industry is fierce, but in recent years, the market is gradually tilted to the domestic market. With the domestic epidemic situation can be controlled, the global market share of domestic manufacturers is expected to further increase. In 2018, through the acquisition of the Japanese subsidiary of American MACOM, the company became a global leader in 100G high-speed optical module and optical module technology, and in 2019, through the acquisition of some of the assets and technology transfer of Oclaro Japan, the company took the lead in 400G and optical modules based on the latest PAM4 modulation technology.
In addition, the company has transferred most of the customer relations of the former MACOM Japan and Oclaro Japan to the Company, and on this basis continues to develop new customers, covering the vast majority of communications equipment manufacturers and data center operators purchasing optical modules at home and abroad, with the orderly progress of integration, high operating performance growth is expected.
Risk hints: the impact of the epidemic has increased uncertainty in overseas markets; the progress of M & An integration has not reached the expected risk.
