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奥园健康(3662.HK):2020年上半年收入增长近40% 下半年在管面积将突破4.500万方

Olympic Park Health (3662.HK): income growth of nearly 40% in the first half of 2020 will exceed 45000 square meters in the second half of the year.

山證國際 ·  Aug 28, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Main points of investment: the income increased by nearly 40%, and the area of property management and business management increased to 16.9 million square meters: the total income of healthy living of the Olympic Park continued to grow at a high speed in the first half of 2020, increasing by 39.5% to about 547 million yuan from about 392 million yuan in the same period in 2019. Among them, the income of the property management service division and the commercial operation service division increased by 43.4% and 28.9% respectively from about 288 million yuan and 105 million yuan in the same period in 2019 to about 412 million yuan and 135 million yuan respectively. In terms of management area, by the end of June 2020, the building area under management and commercial operation of the company has further increased to about 16.1 million and 800000 square meters respectively. It is worth mentioning that the revenue growth of the company's value-added services accelerated significantly in the first half of the year under the epidemic, and the revenue increased by 96.9% over the same period last year to about 57.61 million yuan, indicating the huge development potential of the business which continues to be tapped in the diversified needs of the community.

The overall gross profit margin is steadily rising: in the first half of 2020, the overall gross profit margin of healthy living in Austria increased by 0.6 percentage points to 40.1% from about 39.6% in the first half of 2019; the main reason is: (1) the improvement of economies of scale of property management services; (2) government subsidy support in the epidemic. In addition, the company mainly carried out tax planning in the second half of the year, resulting in an increase in the effective tax rate from about 22% in the first half of 2019 to about 30%. As a result, the net profit margin for the period fell 2.6 percentage points from a year earlier to 20.4%. The acquisition of shares in Le Life and Ningbo Hongjian, the management area will exceed 45 million square meters: during the healthy life period of the Olympic Yuan, 80% of the shares of Le Life Wisdom Community Service Group Co., Ltd. ("Le Life") and 65% of Ningbo Hongjian property Service Co., Ltd. ("Ningbo Hongjian") will be acquired for 248 million yuan and 35.3 million respectively. Happy Life manages 220projects in Beijing, Hebei, Henan, Tianjin, Chongqing and Sichuan, with a total construction area of about 23.3 million square meters. Ningbo Hongjian specializes in providing residential and commercial property management services in Ningbo, Fujian Province. at present, there are a total of 34 projects under management, with a contract floor area of about 2.4 million square meters. After the completion of the acquisition, the company's managed area by the end of 2020 is expected to exceed 45 million square meters. In addition, Leshi and Ningbo Hongjian have a good ability to expand the external market, including industrial new towns, government public construction, factories, banks, hospitals, airports, etc., as well as market expansion advantages in some areas. for example, the market share of hospital property in Qinhuangdao is more than 90%, the two acquisitions can not only expand the scale of management and the source of income. Moreover, it will have a positive impact on the company in many aspects, such as cooperation and complementarity, which will support the sustained and rapid growth of the company's performance.

Gradually landing and deepening the services of the large health industry: Austria's strategic investment in Liantianmei's 5% equity stake in the leading medical and beauty company during its healthy life. Liantianmei, the largest medical and beauty hospital chain group in Zhejiang, is one of the earliest medical and beauty enterprises in China. In terms of health care business, the company signed two-way referral agreements with Guangzhou scolding District Hospital of traditional Chinese Medicine and Guangzhou Hospital of traditional Chinese Medicine to expand the business of traditional Chinese medicine in many directions; in addition, the company also signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Guangdong Gudou Tourism Group in Jiangmen Gudou Hot Spring Town to jointly carry out rehabilitation business. As the company continues to land on the ground in the future, it is expected that the related business will contribute to the company's future performance.

Profit forecast and liability suggestion: we raised the profit attributable to shareholders for the 2020-2022 fiscal year to about 267 million yuan, 381 million yuan and 463 million yuan respectively, up about 62.6% and 21.8% compared with the same period last year. According to the current full-flow discounted valuation model, we have raised the company's target price from HK $7.88 to HK $10.98, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of about 26.9 times for fiscal year 2020, 19.2 times for fiscal year 2021 and 15.8 times for fiscal year 2022. Maintain the company's "buy" rating on the basis that the new target price has about 56.9% room to rise from the August 27 closing price of HK $7.00.

Investment risk: (1) the increase of the amount of business contract is less than expected; (2) system risk

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