2Q20 homing net profit + 75%, adjust profit forecast, target price 4 yuan / share 1H20 company realized revenue / homing net profit / deduction non-homing net profit 91G 820 million yuan 820 million, year-on-year + 13% picks 23% picks 24%, the growth rate of homing net profit is within the performance forecast range (20% + 40%); 2Q20 achieves revenue / return net profit / deduction of non-home net profit of 41G 373.5 million yuan, compared with the same period of last year + 10%, + 10% "75%" 53%. Electricity generation and heat supply have increased steadily, the average electricity price has risen steadily, and the elasticity of thermal power coal price has been highlighted. By adjusting the profit forecast, it is estimated that the 20-22 BPS will be 3.62 + 3.75-3.88 yuan, giving the 20-year 1.1x target PB, with a target price of 4 yuan per share, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Electricity generation and heat supply have increased steadily, and coal-fired power projects have been steadily advanced.
1H20 Company accumulates 33.1 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per yoy+7%, and accumulates 30.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per yoy+8%. By the end of June 20, the company has a holding installed capacity of 15.29 million kilowatts / yoy+14%, under construction of 4.43 million kilowatts and an equity installed capacity of 17.88 million kilowatts / yoy+8%. Expand the heating area, through technical transformation to enhance the heating capacity of thermoelectric units, 1H20 company to the enterprise heating area of 137 million square meters / yoy+35%, cumulative heat supply 3301 Wanji coke / yoy+29%. The progress of the project under construction by the company is steadily advancing according to the time node, and it is expected that the immediate power generation, Qinhuangdao thermal power unit # 2 and Yichun thermal power will be put into production one after another in 2020.
The market-oriented marketing of electricity has achieved results, and the average electricity price has risen steadily.
About 50% of the company's electricity generation is sent directly to economically developed areas such as Beijing, Tianjin and Shandong through UHV and peer-to-peer networks. 1H20's market electricity turnover of 15.1 billion kWh / yoy+8%, accounted for 49% (1H19 47%); the average unit price of electricity sold was 267.99 yuan / MW hour, an increase of 3.2% over the same period last year. At present, many provinces have successively disclosed the "benchmark + floating" electricity price policy, which is generally consistent with the spirit of the central policy. We judge that the formation of the price mechanism will help to drive thermal power to return to the attributes of public utilities.
The average coal consumption occupies the leading level in the industry, and the coal price has more cost advantage.
Most of the new units in the company are large thermal power units and cogeneration units, with sufficient equipment output, and the average coal consumption and plant power consumption are in the leading level in the industry. The company mainly takes the Kengkou power station, and about 90% of the installed capacity is located in the coal-rich area (Inner Mongolia / Ningxia / Shanxi), and the coal price has the cost advantage. The company through off-peak procurement and low-quality coal mixed combustion and other means to further reduce fuel costs. The unit price of 1H20 imported standard coal is 396.46 yuan per ton, down 1.06% from the same period last year. Since the beginning of the year, coal prices have dropped significantly. We estimate that the price center of Q5500 power and end coal in Qingang Port will be about 550 yuan / ton in 2020, which will further benefit the cost control of the company.
Adjust profit forecast, target price 4 yuan, "buy" rating
Electricity consumption is expected to continue the growth trend, adjust the profit forecast, the net profit for 20-22 is expected to be 1.67 billion yuan (1.67 billion yuan), the corresponding BPS is 3.62 pounds 3.75 pounds, and the PB is 0.88x/0.85x/0.82x. With reference to the average PB of comparable company's 20-year Wind consensus expectation of 0.9x, considering the considerable elasticity of the company's coal price, the company is given a 20-year 1.1x target PE of 4 yuan per share (the previous value is 3.27-3.63 yuan). Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: coal prices fall less than expected, utilization hours decline, electricity prices decline risk.