Greentown China (03900.HK): the sales target of listing agent construction and increasing reserves by 250 billion against the trend is expected to be achieved.

億翰智庫 · Sep 2, 2020 00:00 · Researches

核心观点：

2020 上半年绿城中国住宅开发项目增速十分可观，在疫情冲击下仍逆势上涨了34%，较高的业绩增速与企业的投资布局有关，自2019 年以来，绿城中国集中精力布局一二线城市，投资力度逐渐加大，2020 上半年新增土储建面同比上涨241%，新增土储货值同比上涨181%，其中一二线货值占比达75%，此外正式引入战略投资者新湖中宝，其丰富的内长三角土储规模有助于绿城中国的后续发展。

一、代建项目加速拓展，住宅开发项目业绩同比增速34%2020 年绿城中国在当前疫情冲击下仍旧保持着高速增长，上半年实现总合约销售金额达912 亿元，较2019 年同期上涨22.7%。2020 年7 月10 日，绿城旗下绿城管理正式于港交所分拆上市，成为“中国代建第一股。投资项目实现合约销售金额661 亿元，同比上涨34%，但权益销售金额仅380 亿元，权益占比57.8%，处于行业较低水平。

二、引入战略投资者，新增土储建面同比上涨241%2020 上半年，绿城中国新增土地建面1096.7 万平米，同比上涨240.7%，新增土地投资额648 亿元，同比上涨157.6%，新增货值1756 亿元，同比上涨181%，其中一二线城市占比达75%，充足的高能级土地储备可在未来为企业带来更多的业绩及盈利增长，新增货值中25%可在2020 年内实现销售转化，预计下半年新城中国的销售规模还会加速上升。

三、利润率呈下降态势，但未来盈利空间有望释放

2020 上半年，绿城中国实现营业收入239 亿元，较2019年同期的186.6 亿元上涨28.1%，营业收入上涨的同时，毛利润率、净利润率却出现了不同程度的下跌，其中毛利润率由2019 上半年的32.0%下降至25.9%，净利润率由2019 年的16.5%下降至13.1%，低于2019 EH50 净利润率水平。但是我们认为，第一，公司布局核心城市土地价值较高，且住宅市场表现较好，公司产品溢价率突出，能为项目提供充足的利润空间，保障利润增长；第二，公司与新湖中宝合作，而新湖中宝在长三角拥有大量的土储，双方合作开发有利于进一步保障公司利润率的提升。

四、偿债能力保持稳健，多渠道降低融资成本

截至2020 年6 月30 日，绿城中国货币资金余额达628.5亿元，较2019 年底的518.9 亿元上涨21.1%，有息负债1118.5亿元，较2019 年底的955.8 亿元上涨17.0%，净负债率由2019年底的63.2%上升至66.1%，但仍低于2019 EH50 平均净负债率水平，负债结构较为稳健。短期有息负债347.9 亿元，现金短债比为1.8，货币资金较为充裕，短期偿债压力较小。

Core ideas:

The growth rate of Greentown China residential development projects in the first half of 2020 is very considerable, and it still rose 34% against the trend under the impact of the epidemic. The higher performance growth rate is related to the investment layout of enterprises. Since 2019, Greentown China has concentrated on the layout of first-and second-tier cities. Investment has gradually increased. In the first half of 2020, the new land storage construction increased by 241% compared with the same period last year, and the new land storage value increased by 181% compared with the same period last year. In addition, the formal introduction of strategic investor New Lake Zhongbao, its rich land storage scale in the Yangtze River Delta is conducive to the follow-up development of Greentown China.

First, the expansion of agent construction projects has been accelerated, and the performance of residential development projects has grown by 34% compared with the same period last year. Greentown China still maintained rapid growth under the impact of the current epidemic in 2020, with total contract sales reaching 91.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 22.7% over the same period in 2019. On July 10, 2020, Greentown Management, a subsidiary of Greentown, was officially spun off and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the "first share of China Agent Construction." The contract sales of investment projects reached 66.1 billion yuan, up 34% from the same period last year, but the amount of equity sales was only 38 billion yuan, accounting for 57.8% of the total, which is at a lower level in the industry.

Second, the introduction of strategic investors, the new land storage area increased by 241% compared with the same period last year, Greentown China's new land construction area increased by 1096.7 square meters, up 240.7% from the same period last year, the new land investment was 64.8 billion yuan, up 157.6% over the same period last year, and the new goods value was 175.6 billion yuan, up 181% from the same period last year, of which first-and second-tier cities accounted for 75%. Sufficient high-energy land reserves can bring more performance and profit growth for enterprises in the future. 25% of the new goods will be converted into sales by 2020, and sales in Metro China are expected to accelerate in the second half of the year.

Third, the profit margin shows a downward trend, but the future profit space is expected to be released.

In the first half of 2020, Greentown China achieved operating income of 23.9 billion yuan, up 28.1% from 18.66 billion yuan in the same period in 2019. While operating income rose, gross profit margin and net profit margin decreased to varying degrees, of which gross profit margin dropped to 25.9% from 32.0% in the first half of 2019, and net profit margin dropped to 13.1% from 16.5% in 2019, lower than the net profit margin of 2019 EH50. But we believe that, first, the land value of the company's layout of the core city is higher, and the performance of the housing market is better, and the company's product premium rate is outstanding, which can provide sufficient profit space for the project and ensure profit growth; second, the company cooperates with Xinhu Zhongbao, while Xinhu Zhongbao has a large amount of land reserves in the Yangtze River Delta, and the two sides' cooperative development is conducive to further ensuring the improvement of the company's profit margin.

Fourth, the ability to repay debts should remain stable, and financing costs should be reduced through various channels.

As of June 30, 2020, Greentown China's currency fund balance reached 62.85 billion yuan, up 21.1% from 51.89 billion yuan at the end of 2019, an interest-bearing debt of 111.85 billion yuan, up 17.0% from 95.58 billion yuan at the end of 2019, and a net debt ratio of 66.1% from 63.2% at the end of 2019, but still lower than the average net debt ratio of 2019 EH50. The short-term interest-bearing debt is 34.79 billion yuan, the cash-to-short-debt ratio is 1.8, the monetary funds are abundant, and the pressure of short-term debt repayment is relatively small.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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绿城中国(03900.HK)：代建上市、逆势增储 2500亿销售目标有望达成

Greentown China (03900.HK): the sales target of listing agent construction and increasing reserves by 250 billion against the trend is expected to be achieved.

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