20H1 homing net profit increased by 2.96%. It is expected to upgrade warehousing and logistics system integration + service provider company 2020H1 to achieve revenue of 326 million yuan / yoy-17.44%, homing net profit of 60 million yuan / yoy+2.96%, revenue decline mainly due to 1) the acceptance period of system integration projects is longer, with the company's revenue share of this kind of business increasing, the lengthening of order recognition revenue cycle will lead to short-term income fluctuations. 2) affected by the epidemic situation, the on-site installation and commissioning of some projects in the company were blocked, and the acceptance of the project was delayed. We believe that after the change of the controller, the company is expected to rely on the support of Tao Wen Travel Group to develop logistics warehousing such as agricultural products / ceramic e-commerce, and upgrade "warehousing logistics system integration + service provider". To maintain the profit forecast, it is estimated that in 2022, EPS 0.28 pound 0.33 yuan 0.38 yuan, maintain the "overweight" rating.
The fluctuation of comprehensive gross profit margin is mainly due to the adjustment of cost accounting caliber, and the operating net cash flow has greatly improved compared with the same period last year. 20H1 has realized comprehensive gross profit margin 30.04%/yoy-2.65 pct since 2020, mainly in order to achieve more accurate and complete project cost accounting, the company has adjusted its cost accounting caliber to adjust the installation and transportation costs related to the project from sales expenses to operating costs, resulting in a year-on-year decline in comprehensive gross profit margin.
20H1 company sales expense rate 3.84%/yoy-5.36 pct. 20H1 Company achieved operating net cash flow of 54.11 million yuan, from negative to positive, mainly due to the company's sales to increase the recovery efforts, the effect is remarkable. The balance of accounts receivable at the end of June 20 decreased by 34.59 million yuan compared with the end of 19 years.
The company's newly signed orders increased rapidly compared with the same period last year, and the Maanshan base was put into production. It was reported that 2020H1 increased the order volume by nearly 700 million yuan / yoy+56.15%, of which the intelligent manufacturing system integration order increased by 167.87%, and the logistics system integration order increased by 46.44%.
At the same time, the plant and supporting facilities of the first phase of the Maanshan industrial base have completed the main acceptance and are expected to be put into production in the second half of the year. After the completion of the project, it has an annual output of 2000 sets of AGV/RGV shuttle vehicles, 150000 tons of high-precision shelves (1.6 times the company's existing capacity) and 1200 million square meters of plastic spray. The commissioning of the base is expected to enable the company to break through the capacity bottleneck and effectively expand the scale of revenue.
Tao Wen Travel Group is expected to form a joint force with the company and expand revenue growth points. according to the report, the company and Tao Wen Travel Group are expected to form a joint force, specifically as follows: 1) relying on Tao Wen Travel Group to build a logistics warehousing center to serve the cold chain storage of agricultural products and the intelligent storage of ceramic e-commerce; 2) expand the company's existing business scope around the intelligent manufacturing project construction and operation and maintenance needs of Tao Wen Travel Group. 3) Tao Wen Travel Group can organically combine its vocational education and training module with the company's personnel training to continuously transport vocational and technical personnel for the logistics industry.
Full orders + capacity release, the company is expected to achieve rapid development, maintain "increased" rating companies full orders, capacity release is expected to effectively expand the scale of revenue. To maintain the profit forecast, it is estimated that the net profit of homing in 20-22 years will be 0.85 million yuan for 100 EPS, and 0.38 yuan for PE 38x/33x/29x in 20-22 years. With reference to the same kind of comparable company Wind unanimously expected 21-year PE valuation average 36x, considering that 1) the change of the company's real controller to the state-owned background is more conducive to business development, 2) the gradual release of new production capacity, it is reported that the company's 20H1 newly signed orders are growing rapidly year-on-year (yoy+56.15%), which is expected to confirm revenue in 21 years, giving 21PE 40x the target price of 13.28 yuan (the previous value is 9.08-9.93), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic growth is lower than expected, capacity expansion is slower than expected, industry competition intensifies, raw material prices fluctuate, order confirmation rhythm fluctuates, and real controller business coordination is less than expected.