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友阿股份(002277):疫情拖累上半年业绩表现 关注全渠道融合发展效果

中金公司 ·  Sep 1, 2020 00:00  · Researches

The results are in line with our expectations for 1H20 results: revenue of 2,399 billion yuan, down 22.3% year on year; net profit to mother of 80.8 million yuan, down 67.2% year on year, corresponding profit of 0.06 yuan per share, in line with our expectations; net profit after deduction of 99.35 million yuan, down 60% year on year. On a quarterly basis, 2020 Q1/Q2 revenue was -30.4%/-12.3% year over year, and net profit was -76.6%/-47.8% year over year. In Q2, the company's operating performance picked up as the epidemic eased. Trend 1. Revenue for the first half of the year decreased by 22.3% year-on-year, mainly driven by the pandemic. By business type: Retail business revenue fell 15% year on year, and restaurant business revenue fell 73% year on year, mainly due to the impact of the company's phased closure and declining customer flow during the pandemic. Among them, same-store revenue of department stores and specialty stores fell 26%, and revenue from Ole and shopping centers fell 17%. Real estate business revenue fell sharply by 267% year-on-year, mainly due to sales returns due to the cancellation of the original management rights transfer contract by the holding subsidiary, Changsha Youa Wuyi Plaza. In order to reduce the impact of the epidemic on the company's operations, in the first half of the year, the company accelerated exploration of new models of online and offline integration such as live streaming and social marketing. Self-built platforms “Youa Overseas Shopping” and “Youa WeChat Store” contributed 36.4946 million yuan in revenue in the first half of the year; the holding subsidiary Ou Pai Yishuhui reached 323 million yuan in revenue on third-party platforms such as Temple, Koala Haibao, and Vipshop, which partially made up for the offline decline. In terms of exhibition stores, in the first half of the year, the company steadily promoted the 7-11 convenience store franchise business and opened 4 new convenience stores. The company plans to open 20 stores in 2020. 2. Rigid expenses such as rent and labor drag down profit performance. Gross margin decreased by 3.4 ppt to 17.5% year on year. Among them, gross margin of the retail industry decreased by 1.32 ppt year on year, mainly due to the impact of preferential policies granted by the company to suppliers and partners. On the cost side, the overall cost rate increased by 5.8ppt to 22.5% year-on-year during the period, mainly due to the decline in income, but rigid expenses such as interest, rent, employee remuneration, depreciation and amortization led to an increase in the rate. To this end, the company stepped up cost control and cash flow management efforts and actively sought various exemption policies. Net cash flow from operating activities fell 7.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, less than the decline in revenue and profit. 3. Focus on the development effects of digitalization and omni-channel integration. At this stage, while consolidating operations, the company is actively carrying out digital construction of stores, promoting business transformation and upgrading and omni-channel integrated development, and follow-up attention to the transformation results. The company recently signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Yunmi Technology. The two sides plan to jointly create the Yunmi Whole House Internet Appliance implementation experience in Hunan. The company plans to complete the layout of no less than 4 stores by the end of the year. We believe it will help the company to go deeper into home terminals to develop services and further cultivate the Hunan consumer market. The profit forecast and valuation took into account the impact of the pandemic, and the 2020 EPS was reduced by 32% to 0.15 yuan, leaving the 2021 EPS unchanged at 0.23 yuan for the time being. The current stock price corresponds to 19 times the 2021 price-earnings ratio. It maintained an outperforming industry rating, but the target price was raised by 13% to 4.75 yuan, corresponding 21 times the 2021 price-earnings ratio, and there is a 9% upside compared to the current stock price due to the company's application for a tax exemption license to boost market sentiment. Competition in risk sectors continues to intensify; the pandemic has lasted longer than expected.

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