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爱建集团(600643):信托主业稳中有升、构成业绩主要支撑

中金公司 ·  Aug 31, 2020 00:00  · Researches

The 1H20 performance is in line with our expectations, Aijian Group announced 1H20 results: total operating income of 2.02 billion yuan, +3.4%; net profit of 660 million yuan, +4.4%; net profit of 570 million yuan, minus net profit of 570 million yuan, -22.8% year-on-year, mainly due to investment business income (investment income+fair value change profit and loss) was -60% year-on-year to 70.49 million yuan under last year's high base. Among them, non-recurring profit and loss were mainly government subsidies of 60.32 million yuan, asset profit and loss entrusted to others, 62,662 million yuan, and other investment income of 2,605 million yuan Ten thousand yuan. The reporting period ROAE was -0.42ppt to 5.92% yoy. The net profit for 2Q20 was 3.7 billion yuan, +1.1% /+28.3% yoy, which is basically in line with our expectations. The development trend is that the main trust business is steadily rising, which forms the main support for performance. Aijian Trust's 1H20 revenue was +6.6% yoy to 1.17 billion yuan, revenue contribution 58%, net profit +2.4% to 600 million yuan, and profit contribution of 91%. The main trust business developed steadily and improved during the pandemic, supporting the company's performance to maintain a steady trend. In addition, Aijian Asset's 1H20 revenue ratio was -32.6% to 87.61 million yuan, revenue contribution 4%, net profit -82.9% to 10.09 million yuan, profit contribution 2%; Aijian Industrial 1H20 revenue ratio was +6.8% to 260 million yuan, revenue contribution 13%, and net profit was +102.6% to 3.33 million yuan under a low net profit base, with a profit contribution of 1%; Aijian Wealth 1H20 net profit turned a loss of 6.88 million yuan in the same period last year to a profit of 3.31 million yuan. The leasing business has declined, and the sector has been consolidated. Aijian Leasing's 1H20 revenue was -32.1% year-on-year to 140 million yuan, revenue contribution 7%, net profit -60.4% to 26.55 million yuan, profit contribution 4%, or mainly due to the impact of the pandemic on business growth and asset quality and the impact of the implementation of new revenue standards. Furthermore, in the first half of the year, the leasing sector completed the integration of Huarui Leasing into Aijian Leasing (Huarui Leasing 1H20 achieved net profit of 88,87 million yuan), and has already begun work related to the shareholding system reform. After the integration of the leasing sector was completed, the registered capital of Aijian Leasing increased from 1.1 billion yuan at the end of 2019 to 2,336 billion yuan. The continued increase in shareholders' holdings shows confidence, and the internationalization strategy is further advanced. As of July 17, 2020, Junyao Group, the majority shareholder of the company, held a total share ratio of 29.65% of the company's total share capital, and plans to increase the company's shares by a minimum of not less than 0.1% and a maximum of no more than 0.3% within 6 months from June 12, 2020; as of July 16, Junyao Group has completed half of the maximum increase ratio of 0.3% in this holdings increase plan. In addition, the company further promoted the development of its international strategy. The registered capital of Aijian Hong Kong increased from HK$750 million at the end of 2019 to HK$1.1 billion in 1H20, and operations are gradually on the right track (1H20 completed the establishment of the first overseas US dollar fund with a scale of 9 million US dollars, and net profit also changed from a loss of 440,000 yuan to 5.63 million yuan in the same period last year). Profit Forecast and Valuation We maintain our 2020/2021 profit forecast of 1.41 billion yuan/1.49 billion yuan. The company is currently trading at 1.2x 2020e P/B, maintaining an outperforming industry rating and target price of 9.8 yuan, corresponding to 1.3x2020e P/B and 11.3x 2020e P/E, with 10% upside compared to the current stock price. Risk trust and leasing business growth and asset quality are below expectations; regulatory uncertainty.

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