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天立教育(01773.HK):业绩持续快速增长 致力传递优质教育资源

天風證券 ·  Aug 30, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  20H1 achieved revenue of 571 million dollars, an increase of 30.37% over the previous year, mainly due to the increase in student enrollment and the increase in tuition fees for some K12 schools owned by some of their own K12 schools. Specifically, according to the type of income, tuition income is still the core source. 20H1 tuition revenue was 412 million yuan (accounting for 72.13%, year-on-year +2.06pct), up 34.09% year on year; boarding fee revenue was 49 million yuan (8.66%, y-0.23pct), up 26.95% year on year; school restaurant operating fee revenue was 108 million yuan (accounting for 18.89%, year-on-year -1.46pct), up 20.92% year on year; management and franchise fee revenue was 0.02 billion yuan (0.32%, y-0.37pct), down 39.94% year on year. Judging from the contractual liabilities reflecting tuition and accommodation fees charged in advance, the contract debt as of 20H1 was 444 million yuan, a decrease of 24.49% over the previous month. On the one hand, the advance payment at the end of the semester was lower than in the middle of the semester; on the other hand, tuition fees for the 20/21 academic year were 1-2 months later than the same period last year, so they were not fully reflected as of June 30. Judging from the deferred revenue reflecting subsidies, 20H1 received 455 million yuan in new subsidies, 87 million yuan in carry-over subsidies (profit and loss), and 600 million yuan retained at the beginning of the consolidated period, for a total of 972 million yuan at the end of the period. The Tianli Education School Network consists of ① owned and operated schools, ② managed schools that provide management services, and ③ licensed early childhood education centers that have been granted permission to use the company's brand. As of June 30, 2020, the company's school network consists of 20 owned and 4 commissioned K-12 schools operating in 16 cities in Sichuan, Shandong, Guizhou, Yunnan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (these schools manage 13 high school segments, 17 middle school sections, 19 elementary school sections, and 7 kindergarten sections); and a total of 5 training centers and 4 early childhood education centers are operated by the company or licensed to use brands. We believe that strong market demand, mature teaching and refinement, system output capability, and the company's positive growth attitude will drive Tianli's continued rapid growth. Tianli formulates centralized and standardized management systems to help integrate resources, enhance operational efficiency, and maintain education service standards. With the company's management system, we have been able to rapidly expand the school network to new geographical locations, and at the same time implement quality standards within the school network. Tianli's understanding of the K12 education market, local government support for private K12 education, the company's market leadership position, and the development potential of the target market are all very beneficial to the country's continued successful expansion. Maintaining profit forecasts and giving buy-in ratings Tianli uses its own experience in running schools to effectively enrich the local education supply and improve operational efficiency through the unique flexible advantages of the private sector; on the other hand, it will effectively reduce the pressure on local finances. Most local governments across the country have adopted a positive attitude towards private education. We have always been optimistic about the Tianli model and recognized its offsite export and replication of quality education resource experience. Currently, the policy has not yet been finally implemented, but adapting to local conditions to guide the development of high-quality private education may be a long-term direction, so active attention is recommended. Tianli is currently in a stage of rapid growth, and more attention needs to be paid to revenue and student growth. As the school's mature performance is gradually released, we expect Tianli's net profit for FY20-21 to be RMB 390 million and 5300 million respectively, corresponding to PE of 38xPE and 28xPE, respectively. Risk warning: The implementing regulations of the Civil Promotion Law have not yet been implemented, enrollment falls short of expectations, and the loss of core executives

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