Cambridge Technology (603083): Multiple factors drag down H1 performance to maintain optimism in mid-term growth

長江證券 · Aug 29, 2020 00:00 · Researches

　　事件描述

　　8 月28 日，公司披露2020 年中报业绩，2020H1 公司实现营收14.24 亿元，同比下滑1.78%；归母净利润亏损5738 万元，扣非净利润亏损7342 万元。

　　事件评论

　　上半年业绩受多重因素拖累，Q2 显著环比改善：2020H1 公司业绩大幅亏损的主要原因包括：1）国外疫情导致海外订单下滑；2）武汉和西安ICT 设备代工厂未能及时开工，且原材料成本上升；3）光模块产能尚在爬坡阶段；4）2020 年1-4月同比新增Oclaro 日本的部分费用约2,500 万元。5）元器件缺料严重，约20%订单因为缺料而无法生产。6）毛利率更低的国内业务占比提升。7）疫情导致物流价格上升。单二季度，公司实现营收8.55 亿元，同比增长12.5%，环比增长50.2%；归母净利润160 万元，相较Q1 环比增加6059 万元，实现扭亏。各事业部Q2 营收环比改善明显，PON、无线、JDM 和光电子事业部Q1 营收同比增速分别为-42.8%、-33.4%、-20.6%和426.6%，Q2 营收同比增速分别为28.7%、基本持平、7.5%和31%。2020Q2 公司毛利率为14.88%，环比改善6.39pct。

　　光模块全年目标有所调整，中期业绩展望或更乐观：由于数通200G 和400G 产品还处于爬坡阶段，客户因实验室关闭推迟测试公司新产品，5G 光模块的营收较原定目标差距较大，公司下调2020 年光模块产品全年销售目标至10 亿元。中期展望，PON 事业部拿到了国外主流厂商的多个GPON 和10GPON 的项目，有望在下半年和明年带来效益。公司募投项目采购的光模块生产设备将于下半年逐步到位，并新采购1.48 亿元生产设备。2020H1 公司光模块光组件发货约为16 万支，光模块产能持续爬坡，Q2 产出比Q1 增加超过20%，Q4 所有产品年化产能合计将达233 万支。我们维持对光模块行业高景气度的判断，公司去年立项新产品70项，产品线齐全，伴随客户认证推进和扩产落地，明后年业绩潜力将进一步释放。

　　盈利预测及投资建议：2020H1 公司业绩受到多重因素压制，但Q2 各事业部均呈现显著改善，毛利率环比改善6.39pct。公司下调全年光模块销售目标，光模块产能持续爬坡，产品线齐全，伴随客户认证推进和扩产落地，明后年业绩潜力将进一步释放，对公司中期成长性保持乐观。预计公司2020-2022 年实现归母净利润0.63、2.12 和3.64 亿元，对应PE 101、30 和17 倍，维持“买入”评级。

　　风险提示

　　1. 海外疫情影响云服务商需求；

　　2. 产能扩张不及预期。

　　Description of the event

On August 28, the company disclosed its 2020 mid-year report results. 2020H1 achieved revenue of 1,424 billion yuan, down 1.78% from the previous year; Guimu's net profit loss was 57.38 million yuan, after deducting non-net profit loss of 73.42 million yuan.

Incident comments

Performance in the first half of the year was dragged down by multiple factors, and Q2 showed significant month-on-month improvements: the main reasons for 2020H1's sharp loss of performance included: 1) overseas orders fell due to the foreign epidemic; 2) ICT equipment foundries in Wuhan and Xi'an failed to start construction in a timely manner, and raw material costs rose; 3) optical module production capacity was still climbing; 4) Oclaro Japan's cost was increased by about 25 million yuan compared to January-April 2020. 5) There is a serious shortage of components, and about 20% of orders cannot be produced due to lack of materials. 6) The share of domestic businesses with lower gross margins has increased. 7) The epidemic has caused logistics prices to rise. In the second quarter alone, the company achieved revenue of 855 million yuan, an increase of 12.5% over the previous year and an increase of 50.2% over the previous quarter; Guimu's net profit was 1.6 million yuan, an increase of 60.59 million yuan over Q1, to reverse losses. The Q2 revenue of each division improved significantly month-on-month. The Q1 revenue growth rates of the PON, Wireless, JDM, and Optoelectronics divisions were -42.8%, -33.4%, -20.6%, and 426.6%, respectively, while Q2 revenue growth rates were 28.7%, which was basically flat at 7.5% and 31%, respectively. 2020Q2's gross margin was 14.88%, an improvement of 6.39 pct over the previous month.

The annual target for optical modules has been adjusted, and the medium-term performance outlook may be more optimistic: since Digitong's 200G and 400G products are still in the climbing stage, customers have delayed testing the company's new products due to laboratory closures. The revenue gap for 5G optical modules is large compared to the original target. The company lowered its annual sales target for optical module products in 2020 to 1 billion yuan. Looking ahead to the medium term, the PON division has received a number of GPON and 10GPON projects from mainstream foreign manufacturers, which is expected to bring benefits in the second half of the year and next year. The optical module production equipment purchased by the company's fund-raising project will be gradually put in place in the second half of the year, and 148 million yuan of new production equipment will be purchased. The 2020H1 company shipped about 160,000 optical modules. The production capacity of optical modules continues to climb. Q2 output increased by more than 20% compared to Q1, and the total annual production capacity of all Q4 products will reach 2.33 million units. We maintain our judgment on the high level of prosperity in the optical module industry. The company set up 70 new products last year, with a complete product line. As customer certification is promoted and production expansion is implemented, the performance potential for the next year will be further unleashed.

Profit forecast and investment advice: 2020H1's performance was suppressed by multiple factors, but all divisions showed significant improvements in Q2, with gross margin improving 6.39 pct month-on-month. The company lowered its annual sales target for optical modules. Optical module production capacity continues to climb, and the product line is complete. As customer certification is promoted and production expansion is implemented, the performance potential for the next year will be further unleashed, and the company remains optimistic about the company's mid-term growth. The company is expected to achieve net profit of $0.63, 2.12, and 364 million in 2020-2022, corresponding to 101, 30, and 17 times PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning

1. The overseas epidemic affects the demand for cloud service providers;

2. The expansion of production capacity fell short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

剑桥科技(603083)：多重因素拖累H1业绩 中期成长性保持乐观

Cambridge Technology (603083): Multiple factors drag down H1 performance to maintain optimism in mid-term growth

Risk Disclaimer

Statement

剑桥科技(603083)：多重因素拖累H1业绩中期成长性保持乐观