Huayang Lianzhong (603825) 2020 China report performance comments: the first half performance increased by 20% compared with the same period last year, focusing on the volume growth of brand agent operation business in the second half of the year.

中信建投證券 · Aug 25, 2020 00:00 · Researches

　　事件

　　公司发布2020 年中报业绩，上半年实现营收47.8 亿元，同比下滑8.9%，实现归母净利润0.66 亿元，同比增长20.1%，实现扣非后归母净利润0.67 亿元，同比增长30.7%。其中单二季度营业收入26.3 亿元，同比下滑15.3%，归母净利润0.53 亿元，同比下滑4.0%。

　　简评

　　上半年受疫情影响收入整体下滑，品牌代运营起步阶段。从行业角度来看，2020 年上半年受新冠疫情影响，整体广告主行业投放放缓，但公司作为线上营销渠道，受影响较小，上半年总体收入仅下滑8.9%，同时在高毛利率的品牌代运营新业务带动下，归母净利润实现同比增长。我们预计公司上半年品牌代运营业务收入约为2.65 亿元，由于该业务处于起步阶段，净利率约为3%~5%，最终实现净利润约为0.08~0.13 亿元。上半年品牌营销收入约为44.9 亿元，同比下滑约10%~12%，主因公司调整广告主结构，转向行业景气度较高的快消和化妆品类客户，主动削减部分毛利率较低且回款较慢的汽车行业客户，预计影响全年数字营销业务收入10-20 亿元。

　　公司上半年毛利率、净利率小幅提升，期间费用率稳中有升。公司上半年毛利率1.34%，同比提升0.79pct，净利率1.29%，同比提升0.23pct。公司期间费用率9.38%，同比提升0.47pct。其中销售费用2.54 亿元，销售费用率5.31%，同比上升0.84pct；管理费用0.65 亿元，管理费用率1.37%，同比下滑0.02pct；财务费用0.33 亿元，财务费用率0.7%，同比上升0.1pct；研发费用0.96 亿元，研发费用率2.01%，同比下滑0.47pct。

　　转型品牌代运营，优化商业模式，提升公司业务整体毛利率。2019 年公司升级原有买断式销售代理业务，转型品牌代运营，本质为从原有分销环节转向高毛利率的代运营和零售环节，优化商业模式，扩大利润空间。5月1 日首个合资品牌趣卡在社交电商渠道上线。我们通过与壹网壹创的对比研究，认为公司新业务模式长期有望仿照壹网壹创线上营销业务（毛利率42%）与线上管理业务（毛利率70%）。考虑公司现有客户结构，我们认为今年品牌代运营业务毛利率有望提升至25%+。上半年公司代运营业务营收2.65 亿元，预计GMV 约为3.5-4.0亿元，我们预计下半年公司代运营业务有望放量，全年GMV 有望达到10 亿元，对应营收约为6.8 亿元，增厚公司净利润约为0.8~1 亿元。

　　公司发行定增，进一步加强代运营服务实力。公司2020 年4 月发布定增预案，拟投入资金开展品牌代运营业务，构建新营销时代下的新渠道和新零售生态体系，计划募集资金总额不超过9.09 亿元，用于投资建设品牌新零售网络运营建设项目（3.56 亿元）、智慧营销云平台建设项目（1.86 亿元）、创新技术研究中心项目（0.97亿元）和补充流动资金（2.70 亿元）。

　　品牌新零售网络运营建设即品牌代运营，将由集团下属上海华扬和数行两家子公司独立承接品牌代运营业务。募投项目将加强公司数字渠道运营能力，拓展天猫、京东、唯品会等传统线上销售渠道及抖音、快手、B 站、小红书等新型线上销售渠道，并且利用直播营销、内容电商等新型销售模式来开展品牌代运营业务；

　　智慧营销云平台建设项目主要用于整合公司现有的大数据分析平台，将公司原有的全网实时数据图谱分析平台GRAPHy 进行迭代升级并整合成新的综合智能营销平台。智慧营销云可以满足不同企业客户的定制化新营销需求，同时为公司业务提供技术和大数据支持，提高服务质量，减少人工成本；

　　创新技术研究中心项目主要用于进行公司主营业务相关的技术研发升级和新技术创新研究等，比如公司此前正在研发的区块链麦哲伦平台及麦子APP 以及面向未来的营销模式，例如5G 场景下的大数据应用和RCS 终端应用研发；

　　补充流动资金主要用于公司集中付款方式从头部媒体、MCN 等合作机构中可以获得更为优惠的营销资源采购价格，降低采购成本，获得更多的利润空间；以及未来随着公司代运营业务收入的快速增长，产品采购规模不断增加，主流电商平台结算也有一定的信用期。所以更多的流动资金有利于增强公司的运营能力和市场竞争力，提高公司的利润率水平。

　　我们当前持续推荐华扬联众：①转型品牌代运营，从营销切入零售端，行业天花板打开，代运营业务提升公司整体毛利率；②数字营销广告主结构不断优化，转向快消、化妆品等高景气行业客户；③定增进一步加强公司营销和代运营服务能力，有望获得更多广告主预算。我们预计公司2020-2022 年分别实现营业收入117.6、138.9、154.9 亿元，同比增长11.9%、18.1%和11.6%，实现归母净利润3.28、4.61、5.38 亿元，同比增速为70.8%、40.3%和16.8%。8 月24 日收盘价对应2020-2022 年市盈率分别为23x、16x 和14x。我们采用分部估值法：2020年品牌代运营利润约1 个亿，给予50 倍估值，对应50 亿市值。品牌营销净利润约2.2 亿，给予20-25 倍即40-50亿市值，合计约90-100 亿市值，维持买入评级。

　　风险提示：品牌代运营业务不及预期风险、广告主行业景气度下行风险、广告代理行业竞争加剧风险

Event

The company released its mid-2020 results, with revenue of 4.78 billion yuan in the first half, down 8.9% from the same period last year, and net profit of 66 million yuan, an increase of 20.1% over the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-return was 67 million yuan, an increase of 30.7% over the same period last year. Of this total, the operating income in the second quarter alone was 2.63 billion yuan, down 15.3% from the same period last year, and the net profit was 53 million yuan, down 4.0% from the same period last year.

Brief comment

Affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, the overall decline in income, brand operation on behalf of the initial stage. From the perspective of the industry, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic in the first half of 2020, the overall advertising industry slowed down, but the company, as an online marketing channel, was less affected, with overall revenue falling by only 8.9% in the first half of the year. At the same time, driven by brand generation operation of new business with high gross margin, home net profit increased year-on-year. We estimate that the company's business income from brand agency operation in the first half of the year is about 265 million yuan. As the business is in its infancy, the net interest rate is about 3% to 5%, and the final net profit is about 0.08 billion yuan. Brand marketing revenue in the first half of the year was about 4.49 billion yuan, down about 10% / 12% from the same period last year, mainly because the company adjusted the structure of advertisers to fast consumer and cosmetic customers with higher prosperity in the industry, and took the initiative to reduce some customers in the automobile industry with low gross profit margin and slow payback. It is expected to affect the annual digital marketing business income of 10-2 billion yuan.

The company's gross profit margin and net profit rate increased slightly in the first half of the year, and the expense rate increased steadily during the period. The company's gross profit margin in the first half of the year was 1.34%, an increase of 0.79pct over the same period last year, and a net profit of 1.29%, a year-on-year increase of 0.23pct. The expense rate during the company period is 9.38%, which is higher than that of the same period last year. Among them, the sales expense was 254 million yuan, the sales expense rate was 5.31%, up 0.84 pct from the same period last year; the management expense was 65 million yuan, and the management expense rate was 1.37%, down 0.02 pct from the same period last year; the financial expense was 33 million yuan, and the financial expense rate was 0.7%, up 0.1 pct from the same period last year; R & D expenditure was 96 million yuan, and the R & D expense rate was 2.01%, which was down 0.47pct from the same period last year.

Transform the brand operation, optimize the business model and improve the overall gross profit margin of the company's business. In 2019, the company upgraded the original buyout sales agency business and transformed the brand operation, which is essentially from the original distribution link to the generation operation and retail link with high gross profit margin, optimizing the business model and expanding the profit space. On May 1, the first joint venture brand interest card was launched in the social e-commerce channel. Through the comparative study with Yichuang, we think that the company's new business model is expected to emulate the online marketing business (gross margin 42%) and online management business (gross profit 70%) for a long time. Considering the company's existing customer structure, we believe that the gross profit margin of the brand agent operation is expected to increase to 25% + this year. In the first half of the year, the company's agent operating business revenue is 265 million yuan, and the GMV is expected to be about 3.5-400 million yuan. We expect that the company's agent operation business is expected to expand in the second half of the year. The annual GMV is expected to reach 1 billion yuan, the corresponding revenue is about 680 million yuan, and the company's net profit is about 0.81 billion yuan.

The company will issue a fixed increase to further strengthen the strength of agent operation services. The company issued a fixed increase plan in April 2020, which intends to invest funds to carry out brand agent operation business and build a new channel and a new retail ecosystem in the new marketing era. the total amount of funds to be raised will not exceed 909 million yuan. It is used to invest in brand new retail network operation construction project (356 million yuan), smart marketing cloud platform construction project (186 million yuan), innovation technology research center project (97 million yuan) and supplementary liquidity (270 million yuan).

Brand new retail network operation construction, that is, brand agent operation, will be independently undertaken by two subsidiaries of the group, Shanghai Huayang and several lines. The fund-raising project will strengthen the company's ability to operate digital channels, expand traditional online sales channels such as Tmall, JD.com and Vipshop Holdings Limited, and new online sales channels such as Douyin, Kuaishou Technology, Bilibili Inc. and Xiaohongshu. And the use of live marketing, content e-commerce and other new sales models to carry out brand agent operation business.

The smart marketing cloud platform construction project is mainly used to integrate the company's existing big data analysis platform, to iteratively upgrade the company's original network-wide real-time data graph analysis platform GRAPHy and integrate it into a new comprehensive intelligent marketing platform. Smart marketing cloud can meet the customized new marketing needs of customers of different enterprises, and at the same time provide technical and big data support for the company's business, improve service quality and reduce labor costs.

The Innovation Technology Research Center project is mainly used to carry out technology R & D and upgrading and new technology innovation research related to the company's main business, such as the blockchain Magellan platform and Mai APP that the company was previously developing, as well as future-oriented marketing models, such as big data application and RCS terminal application research and development in 5G scenario.

Supplementary current funds are mainly used for centralized payment by companies to obtain more favorable purchase prices of marketing resources, reduce procurement costs and obtain more profit space from head media, MCN and other cooperative organizations; and in the future, with the rapid growth of the company's operating business income, the scale of product procurement continues to increase, and the mainstream e-commerce platform settlement also has a certain credit period. Therefore, more liquidity will help to enhance the company's operating capacity and market competitiveness, and improve the company's profit margin.

At present, we continue to recommend Huayang Lianzhong: ① transforms the brand to operate on behalf of the retail side, and the industry ceiling is opened to improve the overall gross profit margin of the company on behalf of the operation business; the structure of ② digital marketing advertisers is constantly optimized to shift to customers in high-prosperity industries such as fast consumer and cosmetics; ③ will further strengthen the company's marketing and operating service capabilities, and it is expected to get more advertiser budget. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 117.6 yuan, 138.9 yuan and 15.49 billion yuan respectively from 2020 to 2022, an increase of 11.9%, 18.1% and 11.6% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 3.28,4.61 and 538 million yuan, with an increase of 70.8%, 40.3% and 16.8%, respectively. The closing price on August 24 corresponds to the price-to-earnings ratio of 23x, 16x and 14x for 2020-2022, respectively. We use the segment valuation method: the brand represents an operating profit of about 100 million in 2020, which is valued at 50 times, corresponding to a market capitalization of 5 billion. Brand marketing net profit of about 220 million, given 20-25 times or 40-5 billion market capitalization, a total of about 90-10 billion market capitalization, to maintain the buy rating.

Risk hint: brand agent operation business is lower than expected risk, advertiser industry prosperity downside risk, advertising agency industry competition aggravating risk

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华扬联众(603825)2020中报业绩点评：上半年业绩同比增20% 关注下半年品牌代运营业务放量增长

Huayang Lianzhong (603825) 2020 China report performance comments: the first half performance increased by 20% compared with the same period last year, focusing on the volume growth of brand agent operation business in the second half of the year.

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