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当代文体(600136):疫情压制公司业绩 看好2021年触底反弹

西南證券 ·  Aug 21, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Performance summary: In the first half of 2020, the company achieved operating income of 330 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.7%; realized net profit of 540 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 185.9%; and realized net profit after deduction of net profit of 550 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2182.8%. The company's business has been greatly affected by the pandemic. The film, television, and sports businesses are the company's core businesses. They have all been severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a year-on-year decline in the company's performance in the first half of the year. Among them, the sports business segment achieved revenue of 340 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64%, mainly due to the fact that the 2020 European Cup was postponed to 2021, and the expenses already paid by the company were confirmed during the corresponding benefit period as agreed in the contract; furthermore, the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics prevented the sports marketing business from developing smoothly. In the first half of 2020, the net cash inflow from the company's operating activities was $240 million, a decrease of 54% over the same period last year. The sports business is leading the industry and is optimistic that 2021 will hit bottom and rebound. The company is a leading sports copyright operator and marketing service provider in China, with a broad industrial layout and rich industry resources. 1) The core layout is the copyright business, and the copyright reserve is absolutely leading: it has the 2018-2022 UEFA national team series, the 2019/2020-2024/2025 La Liga full media copyright, and the 2021-2028 AFC related tournaments, and has built a very complete copyright matrix. 2) Leading industrial resources and outstanding sports marketing capabilities: Deeply involved in the sports industry, with superior resource reserves upstream and downstream of the industry chain, which helps the smooth development of sports marketing business, has successfully operated business interests in the 2018 World Cup, and currently operates AFC related copyrights at its core, leaving Asia to spread globally. The company's sports business has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, but as the epidemic gradually stabilizes and sports events gradually resume, the company's sports business is expected to bottom out and rebound in 2021. Actively responding to changes in the industry, the film and television business has entered a recovery path. The company's film and television business has implemented targeted measures to cope with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. During the gap period, the company strengthened research and judgment on industry trends and carried out work such as script adaptation to improve the efficiency of results transformation. The company has plenty of plans for follow-up products. Dramas such as “Breaking the Dark Clouds”, “The Kingdom of the Qing Dynasty”, “Merit”, and “Happiness Reaches Ten Thousand Families” will continue to be filmed throughout the year. Profit forecasts and investment advice. Considering the impact of the pandemic, we adjusted the company's 2020-2022 EPS to -0.47 yuan, 0.76 yuan, and 0.73 yuan to maintain the “buy” rating. Risk warning: risk of major changes in sports policy, risk of business integration or failure to meet expectations, risk of industry recovery or failure to meet expectations, risk of competition copyright acquisition or failure to meet expectations, risk of merger and acquisition project operation or failure to meet expectations.

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