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中国奥园(03883.HK):销售增长势头恢复 维持“买入”

國泰君安國際 ·  Aug 18, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  The growth rate of contract sales in the first seven months of 2020 has recovered. Contract sales from January to July 2020 increased 0.2% year-on-year to RMB 60.42 billion, indicating a strong recovery in sales. So far, the company has achieved 45.8% of its 2020 sales target. The company's saleable value in 2020 is expected to reach RMB 220 billion, and the target removal rate is about 60%. Urban renewal will contribute to a significant increase in the value of land storage. As of June 30, 2020, the total land storage area of the company reached 487.735 million square meters, with a total value of about RMB 501.5 billion. Taking into account urban renewal projects, the total saleable value is expected to reach about RMB 1,160.2 billion, which shows the company's strong ability to renew cities. Net profit for core shareholders in the first half of 2020 rose 5.9% year on year to RMB2.195 billion, slightly worse than our expectations. The company's revenue for the first half of 2020 increased 19.3% year on year to RMB 28.243 billion. Gross margin fell 0.5 percentage points year over year to 29.3%. We expect core net profit from 2020 to 2022 to reach RMB 5.701 billion, RMB 7.021 billion, and RMB 8.165 billion, respectively. Benefiting from previous strong contract sales growth, the company has accumulated outstanding sales revenue of approximately RMB 180 billion. This uncarried forward revenue is expected to be carried over within the next two years, showing more steady growth expectations. We lowered the company's target price to HK$13.10. Compared with the company's 2020 valuation of HK$29.10 per share, there is a 55% discount, which is also equivalent to 5.7 times the 2020 core price-earnings ratio and 1.7 times the 2020 net market ratio, respectively. Maintain a “buy” investment rating. Risk factors: contract sales below expectations, uncertainty about commercial projects and old reform projects.

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