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世茂股份(600823)投资价值分析报告:集团支持资源丰厚 聚焦商业潜力巨大

中信證券 ·  Aug 24, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Relying on the full support of Shimao Group, the company starts from a very low leverage ratio. While increasing the pace of development while cultivating operational capabilities, the company may become a rare upstart in growth real estate with a high margin of safety in the A-share market. The position of the leader in the first-tier industry is clear, and it is the only platform for A-share listing. Shimao Group (00813.hk) (“Group” for short in this article), the controlling shareholder of the company, is the industry leader. In recent years, sales growth has been rapid and its credit strength is strong. The division of labor between the company and the group is clear, and the company is responsible for the development and operation of commercial real estate. For large-scale complex projects, the Group arranges corporate holdings and joint development, and provides strong financial and other support. Since 2019, the Group has continued to increase its shares in the secondary market, reaching a cumulative total of 5%, which highlights the Group's confidence in the company. The value of the company's resources is very strong. The company's resource reserves for development projects have reached 19 million square meters, and the planned construction area without contract carry-over is about 15 million square meters. We estimate that the unsettled value of the company's equity exceeds 150 billion yuan. The property owned by the company is measured at fair value, with a book value close to 50 billion yuan. In the first half of this year, the rental income exceeded 300 million yuan under the obvious impact of the epidemic. We estimate that the revalued net asset value of the company exceeds 40 billion yuan (regardless of the value of asset-light service platforms). The company's management platform has great potential for growth. The company hopes that within five years, it will be able to rank among the top ten in the domestic commercial real estate sector. The asset-light business management platform will be able to operate and manage more than 100 projects, and the themed entertainment platform will bring joy to 10 million families every year. The company's asset-light service platform is already quite large. Under the bookkeeping principle of the remuneration system, the company's property management revenue in 2019 reached 450 million yuan. If converted to a package management system, this is already equivalent to the level of a medium-sized listed property management company. With steady management, there is still obvious room for a jump start. The company's interest-bearing debt ratio is only 20%, net debt ratio is only 17%, and financing costs are kept at around 5.5%, which is at a very low level in the industry. We believe that the company's balance sheet has a realistic basis for significantly improving development. Risk warning: The company has been affected by the pandemic, and sales and performance settlements in 2020 may fluctuate. The huge margin of safety combined with significant room for growth was covered for the first time, giving the company a “buy” investment rating. We believe that the current market value of the company is not only far below the value of the reassessed resources actually owned by the company, but it also does not take into account the broad development space of the company's asset-light operating platform. We gave the company a profit forecast of 0.61/0.87/1.08 yuan/share for 2020/2021/2022, and gave the company a target price of 10 times PE for 2021, or 8.66 yuan/share. Excluding conservative value estimates for asset-light platforms, the NAV discount was 33.5%. The company's current stock price is 5.05 yuan/share. We covered it for the first time and gave it a “buy” investment rating.

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