1. The Bohai Sea Ferry announcement cuts into the field of cross-border e-commerce and opens the future imagination space. On the evening of August 6, the Bohai Sea Ferry issued an announcement on signing a strategic cooperation agreement. Yantai bonded Port Administration Committee and Bohai Ferry have established a comprehensive cooperative relationship in cross-border e-commerce, shipping logistics, intelligent warehousing, supply chain finance, system support and other fields.
The project is the first cross-border e-commerce project featured by government-enterprise cooperation focusing on commodity trade between Japan and South Korea. The two sides deeply match and complement each other. With the help of the policy advantages and institutional innovation advantages of Yantai bonded Port area, with the new mode of "display transaction + cross-border e-commerce combination", we will carry out comprehensive services such as bonded display, offline pick-up of cross-border e-commerce products, international procurement of cross-border products, bonded import and direct mail import, and strive to build domestic Japan-South Korea cross-border commodity distribution centers and distribution centers. To create a landmark platform for cross-border e-commerce industry for goods from Japan and South Korea.
2. We judge that the company's cross-border e-commerce business will cooperate with large duty-free companies in Japan and South Korea, and may bring the company a net profit of more than 1 billion in the medium term. Relying on the unique geographical location of Yantai Free Trade Zone, the company can develop online and offline cross-border e-commerce model. Relying on the geographical advantage of Yantai Free Trade Zone in the center of Yantai, the business area of Yantai Free Trade Zone can reach 30, 000 square meters, and the flow access support of Yantai Travel Agency, Bohai Ferry can be developed into an offline mode of "duty-free shops in the city". Relying on the annual 3 million sea passengers of Bohai Ferry, the offline mode of "on-board display shop + direct mail to home" can be developed. In the later stage, online and offline development can be combined.
We judge that there is a high probability that the company will jointly operate bonded / cross-border e-commerce business with large duty-free operators in Japan and South Korea in the future. The channel and price advantage will be due to the traditional cross-border e-commerce, and the price can be comparable to the duty-free shop. If it develops smoothly, it is expected to bring the company a net profit of about 1 billion by 2025.
3. Catalyst: formal cooperation with Japanese and Korean duty-free merchants and the opening of Japanese and Korean commodity experience stores in Yantai Free Trade Zone We believe that the company will announce the establishment of "Yantai Comprehensive Free Trade Zone Cross-Border E-Commerce Co., Ltd.". At that time, the partner will be clear and become the catalyst of the company's stock price; in addition, the formal opening of Japanese and Korean commodity experience stores in the bonded port area will also become a major catalyst.
4. Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect the company's net profit from 2020 to 2022 to be 1.1,4.8 and 720 million yuan respectively, and its EPS to be 0.24,1.02 and 1.52 yuan respectively. Using the step-by-step valuation of traditional business and cross-border e-commerce business, and according to the neutral assumption, we think that the reasonable market value range of Bohai Ferry is 189.4-23.81 billion yuan, and the reasonable stock price is 40.04-50.34 yuan.
Risk hint
1. The company's cross-border e-commerce business is not as good as expected.
2. The epidemic situation lasted longer than expected, and the domestic epidemic situation was repeated.
3. Oil prices have risen sharply
4. geopolitical risks, etc.