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时代中国控股(01233.HK):归母核心利润下滑8.5% 全年销售目标不变

第一上海 ·  Aug 19, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Core profit fell 8.5%% to 1.56 billion dollars: As of mid-2020, the company achieved operating income of about 14.5 billion yuan, down 6.4% year on year, of which property sales revenue recorded 14.7 billion yuan, down 0.3% year on year, and rental revenue was about 212 million yuan, up 3.4% year on year. There was no revenue from urban renewal business and property management business in the first half of this year. The company's gross profit fell 22.5% to 4.02 billion yuan, and gross margin fell 5.6 percentage points to 26.9%. Furthermore, the corporate fee rate rose slightly to 8.2%, but the effective tax rate was reduced to 41%. The company recorded net profit of about 1.81 billion yuan, core net profit of about 1,56 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of about 10.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year. The annual target of contract sales of 82.3 billion yuan remained unchanged: from January to June 2020, the company achieved contract sales of 32.6 billion yuan, an increase of 4% over the previous year, a contract sales area of 2.34 million square meters, an increase of 13% over the previous year, and achieved 40% of the annual sales target of 82.3 billion yuan. Based on contract sales for the first half of the year, Guangzhou contributed 25.6%, Foshan contributed 29%, Zhuhai contributed 7.8%, Zhongshan contributed 2.1%, and other regions contributed 35.5%. The company has an annual value of about 140 to 150 billion dollars. The saleable value is still sufficient, and it is likely that it will successfully complete the annual sales target. The transformation of the old reform project went smoothly, and high-quality land storage continued to be replenished: As of mid-2020, the company's land reserves were about 21.8 million square meters, and the average land storage cost was nearly 4183 yuan/square meter, accounting for about 29.5% of ASP in 1H2020. The company's current land storage is mainly located in Tier 1 and 2 cities and the Greater Bay Area, of which the Greater Bay Area accounts for nearly 90% of land storage (including Qingyuan region). In addition, the volume of the company's urban renewal projects has gradually increased. As of the first half of 2020, the company has more than 150 urban renewal projects with an estimated construction area of about 52 million square meters, of which Guangzhou, Foshan and Dongguan account for a relatively large share, accounting for 53%, 17.7%, and 12.8% respectively. As of the first half of the year, the company has successfully converted 4 projects with a total construction area of about 1.37 million square meters and an estimated value of about 42.5 billion yuan. It is estimated that the company is expected to convert another 5-6 projects in the second half of the year. With the smooth transformation of old reform projects, the company's land storage scale will gradually increase. The target price is HK$15.3, maintaining the buying rating: Due to the impact of the pandemic in 2020, the company's annual carry-over area is expected to decline (the average carry-over price will increase compared to the same period last year). At the same time, considering the certain performance growth brought about by the transformation of the company's old reform projects, we predict that the company will achieve net profit of about $5.15 billion, $6.72 billion, and $8.27 billion in 2020-2022, a year-on-year increase of -1.1%, 30%, and 23%. Although the company's performance in 2020 has fluctuated, considering that the company's current gradual increase in the volume of old reform volume and continuous consolidation of the leading position of old reform in the Greater Bay Area, and that the progress of old reform and transformation continues to advance, and the gradual release of the value of the old reform, we gave the company a price-earnings ratio of 4 times that of 2021, corresponding to the target price of HK$15.3, and gave a buying rating.

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