Core viewpoints
The company is a new star in the field of anti-influenza in China and has a good momentum of development. Since 2009, the company has established an anti-influenza product line with paramivir as the core. In addition to the paramivir injection already on the market, there are two new dosage forms of paramivir atomization and dry powder, as well as oseltamivir dry suspension and a new generation of anti-influenza variety NX-2016, which is one of the most competitive enterprises in this field in China. In recent years, the company has stepped into the track of rapid development. In 2016-2019, the company's revenue and return net profit CAGR reached 38% and 58%, respectively. In the future, with the continuous growth of the overall revenue scale, the level of net interest rate is expected to be further improved.
The anti-influenza market is expanding rapidly, and it is time for paramivir. From 2015 to 2019, the anti-influenza market size of domestic sample hospitals reached 55%. The main reasons are: 1) the treatment demand brought about by the global H1N1 epidemic since 2009; 2) the continuous maturity and academic promotion of treatment varieties; and 3) the great improvement of terminal drug structure and ability to pay. At present, anti-influenza drugs are absolutely dominated by neuraminidase inhibitors, of which oseltamivir accounts for the highest proportion, and the market share of paramivir has increased rapidly in recent years. We believe that the growth prospect of paramivir is better, on the one hand, the curative effect is slightly better than that of oseltamivir, and the two dosage forms are misplaced; on the other hand, the audience is wider, the injection takes effect faster and the half-life is longer, resulting in longer action time.
Take anti-influenza products as the cornerstone, actively expand the pipeline of innovative drugs. As mentioned earlier, the company has laid out a multi-product, full-dose complete pipeline in the field of anti-influenza, and on this basis, it has also obtained two 1.1 innovative drug products through independent research and development and external cooperation. they are metafenil (anti-tumor) and meflunone (anti-liver and kidney fibrosis). It is worth noting that metafinil has entered the 1b/2a phase and is expected to declare NDA with clinical phase 2 data in the future, which can be used in the treatment of a variety of solid tumors; meflunidone has also been approved by IND, mainly used in the anti-fibrosis treatment of diabetic nephropathy, with broad prospects.
Financial forecasts and investment suggestions
We predict that from 2020 to 2022, the company will achieve a net profit of 1.31 million yuan and 1.97 million yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 0.93 yuan, 1.41 yuan, 2.12 yuan. According to the comparable company, it will be given 97 times PE in 2020, corresponding to the target price of 90.21 yuan, with a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hint
If the research and development of innovative drugs is not as expected, it will affect the medium-and long-term development prospects of the company.
If paramivir and other products do not sell well, or if the expense rate remains high, it will affect the company's performance.