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世茂股份(600823):资金充裕货值充分 稳增长高分红值得期待

申萬宏源研究 ·  Aug 21, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: The company disclosed its 2020 mid-year report. Revenue and profit declined due to the pandemic. The company achieved operating income of 9.16 billion yuan in 2020H1, a year-on-year decrease of 28.6%; net profit of 1.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.6%; and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.5%. There was a slight decline in sales. New construction starts and a rapid increase in construction area indicate sufficient value in 2020. 2020H1 achieved a contract volume of 9.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, and 35% of the annual target; achieved a sales contract area of about 400,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. During this period, the company's real estate construction area was about 1.22 million square meters, an increase of 40% over the previous year; the completed area was about 420,000 square meters, an increase of 11% over the previous year. In the first half of 2020, the company achieved a contract area of 396,000 square meters, of which Tier 1, 2, and 3 accounted for 12.6%/60.1%/27.3%, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei/Yangtze Delta/ Pearl Delta/ Haixi/ other regions accounted for 0.4%/30.1%/12.6%/5.2%/51.7%. Land acquisition intensity is high, and soil storage layout is superior. The company's sales for 2020H1 were 9.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29%. As of the end of June, the company had a land reserve of about 18.99 million square meters. According to static estimates, it is estimated that it can be sold for more than 5 years. The land storage layout is rich and the location is superior. In terms of construction, Tier 1, 2, and 3 accounted for 8.7%/58.6%/32.6%/32.6%, while Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei/Yangtze Delta/Pearl Delta/Haixi/other regions accounted for 3.0%/14.9%/13.9%/22.4%/45.9%. Commercial real estate leasing performance is outstanding, and gross margin is rising steadily. In 2020H1, the company's real estate leased area was about 1.7 million square meters, an increase of 20% over the end of the previous year, and obtained rental income of about 330 million yuan, which is the company's stable source of cash flow. The overall rental rate has declined due to the pandemic, to about 77%. The gross margin of the company's various businesses gradually increased. The gross margin of residential sales/commercial real estate sales/real estate sales/real estate sales/service business was 33.2%/35.8%/86.5%/66.4% respectively, up 4.1/13.6/5.2/4.5 pct from the previous year. The cash flow is sufficient, and the leverage ratio is still low. The company's balance ratio excluding advance receipts was 61.0%, up 2.5 percentage points from the end of the previous year, and the leverage ratio remains stable. Due to the relatively abundant liquidity of the industry in the first half of the year, as of June, the company issued 1 billion yuan of new medium-term notes, 1 billion yuan of targeted debt financing instruments, and 3 billion yuan of corporate bonds. According to the company's current projects, the company's capital expenditure for 2020 is estimated to be 19.5 billion yuan, and the three expenses are estimated to be 3.5 billion yuan. It plans to use financing methods such as bank loans, debt financing, and pre-sale housing payments to meet capital requirements. Maintain buying ratings and maintain profit forecasts. The company implemented the Group's integrated two-wing strategy. By the end of June, the company had about 19 million square meters of high-quality residential+commercial land reserves, accounting for 90% of the first and second tier according to the value of goods. The asset quality is high, the market is seriously underestimated, the management has changed its management thinking positively, and the management is steady and the dividends are generous. Maintain the earnings forecast for 2020-22. Net profit attributable to the parent company is estimated at 27.1/32.1/37.1 billion in 2020-22, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.7%/18.2%/15.5%. The corresponding EPS is 0.72/0.86/0.99 yuan, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current price is 6.4X, 5.3X, and 4.6X. Risk Warning: Sales Decrease Exceeded Expectations, Rents Dropped Sharply

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