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世茂股份(600823)公司半年报:疫情影响短暂 坚持长期销售高增长计划

海通證券 ·  Aug 21, 2020 00:00  · Researches

incident. The company announced its 2020 semi-annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 9.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.58%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1,039 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.48%. In the first half of 2020, the company's revenue decreased by 28.58% due to factors such as the type, region, and price of various settlement properties; in the same period, net profit from the mother decreased by 34.48%. According to the company's 2020 semi-annual report, during the reporting period, the company achieved a contract amount of 9.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, and 35% of the annual target; achieved a sales contract area of about 400,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. During the reporting period, the company's project development progressed in an orderly manner. The company's real estate construction area was about 1.22 million square meters, an increase of 40% over the previous year; the completed area was about 420,000 square meters, an increase of 11% over the previous year; the company's real estate leased area was about 1.7 million square meters, generating rent income of 328 million yuan, and the comprehensive rental rate was about 77%. By the end of June, the company held more than 18.99 million square meters of land reserves. During the reporting period, Jinan Shimao Plaza had a new lease and renewal area of more than 8,500 square meters in the first half of the year, and 44 new brands were introduced and upgraded, improving the region's overall rent efficiency and sales; Shenzhen Qianhai Shimao Tower signed nearly 15,000 square meters in the first half of 2020, leading the Qianhai region of Shenzhen; and the Changsha Shimao Global Financial Center entered the market in the second quarter of this year, and 13,800 square meters had been signed as of the end of June. As the epidemic eases and the economy recovers, the project will make every effort to reach the 40% occupancy rate target in the second half of the year. According to the company's 2020 semi-annual report, the company's future long-term business and sales contract plan: It is planned that by 2024, the company's sales contracts will reach 100 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of about 40%. Investment advice. Lay out Tier 1 and 2 cities to create leading commercial real estate, with a “superior to the market” rating. The company is a comprehensive real estate listed company under Shimao Group that integrates various business segments such as integrated commercial real estate development, sales, operation and management, etc. The company adheres to a diversified approach combining bidding and mergers and acquisitions, focusing on economically developed Tier 1 and 2 cities and strong third- and fourth-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim, Fujian and Greater Bay Area. As of the end of the reporting period, the company held a total of 18.99 million square meters of land reserves under construction/pending construction. We expect the company's 2020-2021 EPS to be 0.79 yuan and 0.96 yuan, and the corresponding RNAV is 18.67 yuan. Considering that the company “plans that by 2024, the company's sales contracts will reach 100 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of about 40%”, we gave the company 5.5-6.5 times dynamic PE in 2020, with a corresponding reasonable value range of 4.35-5.14 yuan, maintaining the company's “superior to the market” rating. Risk warning: The company faces the risk of poor sales standards and falling sales prices, as well as the risk of the economic downturn affecting commercial property leasing.

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