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思考乐教育(1769.HK):疫情致20H1收入业绩小幅增长 积极扩张势头不减

天風證券 ·  Aug 20, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Due to the impact of the pandemic, revenue performance increased slightly. On August 19, 2020, Thinkle Education released the 2020H1 results announcement (2020.01.01-2020.06.30). 2020H1 had revenue of 326 million yuan (+10.2%) and net profit of 64 million yuan (+6.8%) after adjustment. Specifically, academic preparation course revenue was 315 million yuan (+10.6%), accounting for 96.62%; primary primary school quality education course revenue was 11.1 million yuan (+0.1%), accounting for 3.38%. The increase in revenue is mainly due to the increase in the total number of enrolled students and the number of tutoring hours. The main reasons are (i) the total number of study centers in the company increased from 64 at the end of June 2019 to 127 at the end of June 2020; (ii) the average tuition fee for each tutoring class for regular courses increased from $79.8 in 2019 to $83.6 in 2020. The cash and equivalent in the company's balance sheet as at the end of June 2020 was $156 million. The main business cost of the 2020H1 company was 203 million yuan (+21.4%), mainly due to the increase in teachers' remuneration and usufruct asset amortization and additional expenses arising from online courses during the pandemic. The gross profit of 2020H1 was 122 million yuan (-4.4%), and the gross profit margin was 37.5% (-5.8pct); the decline in gross margin was mainly due to i) the growth period of newly opened learning centers in 2019 and 2020, and the revenue generated was relatively limited, but the relative costs of the company's learning centers, payroll and benefit-related usufruct assets remained fixed during the same period; ii) additional expenses for online courses were incurred during the pandemic. The management fee is 58.4 million yuan (-8.1%), and the management fee rate is 17.94% (-3.55pct). Sales expenses were 5.9 million yuan (-8.2%), and sales expenses were 1.81% (-0.39pct). The main reasons for the reduction in sales expenses were 1) a decrease in advertising and exhibition expenses, and 2) an increase in remuneration expenses related to business activities. The R&D cost is 20.4 million yuan (+29.4%), and the R&D cost rate is 6.27% (+0.91pct). The increase in R&D expenses is mainly due to the increase in the number of R&D personnel. Financial expenses were 16.9 million yuan (+57.4%), mainly due to an increase in interest expenses on lease liabilities. The net profit after 2020H1 was 64.28 million yuan, up 6.8% year on year; net profit margin after adjustment was 19.74%, down 0.63 pct year on year. Maintain the profit forecast, give the purchase rating K12, training assets have a lot of room for growth, think and enjoy the Greater Bay Area demographic dividend, the management team is very motivated, and the partnership system incentives are in place. Currently, it is in a stage of rapid growth, the rapid release of growth dividends, and the market value is very flexible. The company expects net profit for FY20-21 to be 200,000 and 280 million, respectively, and PE is 49x and 35x respectively. Risk warning: enrollment falls short of expectations, loss of core executives, and fierce market competition

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