Lingshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. (600231) 2020 China report comments: the decline in production and sales and the decline in steel prices drag on the company's performance.

川財證券 · Aug 18, 2020 00:00 · Researches

事件

公司发布2020 年中报，2020 上半年公司实现营业收入92.48 亿元，同比降低13.04%；实现归属于母公司股东净利润1.52 亿元，同比下降60.02%。

点评

上半年业绩降幅较大，吨钢毛利在钢价下跌及成本高企背景下大幅回落。2020年上半年钢铁行业在一季度疫情影响下游需求、钢材库存高企及铁矿石价格中枢较高等因素的综合影响下盈利大幅回落，普钢企业平均盈利降幅在50%左右，公司上半年业绩业绩降幅为60.02%，略大于行业均值。我们对公司业绩进行拆分，钢材产销回落及钢价下跌为主要原因。在生产端，一季度疫情影响下废钢断货等因素对公司钢材生产构成不利影响，上半年公司生产生铁265.82 万吨，同比下降1.59%；粗钢281.74 万吨，同比下降3.49%；商品材278.05 万吨，同比下降4.38%。在销售端，公司产品售价一季度跌幅较大、二季度伴随需求改善回升，但整体看同比降幅较大，上半年公司型材、板带材、管材平均售价为3168、3075、3447 元/吨，同比降幅达到6.9%、6.6%、7.2%。在盈利端，公司核心产品吨钢毛利在售价下行，及铁矿涨价、铁水成本上升的综合影响下大幅回落，我们据公司中报及半年度经营数据测算上半年型材、板带材、管材吨钢毛利分别为172、139、71 元/吨，同比降幅为41%、61%、80%。

销售毛利率回落，期间费用大幅下降。财务数据方面，公司上半年吨钢毛利大幅回落促使公司整体毛利率下降，一、二季度公司销售毛利率为3.17%、6.69%，同比回落3.05、4.54 个百分点。报告期内公司期间费用大幅下降，一是由于会计准则变更，运输费用从销售费用计入营业成本使得销售费用同比降49%，二是公司债券于去年8 月到期还本付息促使利息支出大幅减少，公司财务费用同比下降90%。

建筑钢材盈利空间有望扩大，公司下半年业绩或将修复。公司型钢产品主要为棒材及线材，从历史数据看棒材贡献公司6-7 成主营收入、毛利，公司棒材产品以建筑用钢为主，建筑钢材盈利情况对公司盈利水平影响较大。8 月以来建筑钢材需求季节性好转，我们基于8、9 月份专项债发行将加速，基建增速有望进一步提升，基建用钢良好表现有望维持；以及7 月房企销售延续增长，低房贷利率环境下房屋销售较好，地产用钢韧性较强等因素对后续建筑钢材需求表现不悲观，建筑钢材需求在经历季节性淡季后仍有望重现高增长，叠加后续铁矿石价格回落有望让利钢材，中期维度建筑钢材利润空间有望扩大。公司层面，公司于2019 年底与旭阳集团共同出资设立旭阳凌钢能源公司，为公司配套建设300 万吨焦炭项目，建设周期四年，项目达产后将有力提升公司原料保障能力，增强盈利韧性。建筑钢材盈利改善预期较强，下半年公司业绩修复确定性较高，我们预计公司2020-2022 年EPS 分别为0.11、0.13、0.14 元/股，当前股价对应的PE 为22、18、16 倍，对公司维持“增持”评级。

风险提示：建筑钢材需求不及预期、矿石涨价影响钢材利润。

Event

According to the company's mid-2020 report, the company achieved 9.248 billion yuan in operating income in the first half of 2020, down 13.04% from the same period last year, and the net profit of shareholders belonging to the parent company was 152 million yuan, down 60.02% from the same period last year.

Comment

The performance fell sharply in the first half of the year, with gross margin per ton of steel falling sharply against the backdrop of falling steel prices and high costs. In the first half of 2020, under the combined influence of the epidemic affecting downstream demand, high steel inventory and high iron ore price center, the profits of the iron and steel industry fell sharply in the first half of 2020. The average profit of enterprises in Pu Steel fell by about 50%. The company's performance in the first half of the year fell by 60.02%, slightly more than the industry average. We split the company's performance, steel production and sales fell and steel prices fell as the main reasons. On the production side, scrap steel out of stock and other factors adversely affected the company's steel production under the influence of the epidemic situation in the first quarter. In the first half of the year, the company produced 2.6582 million tons of pig iron, down 1.59 percent from the same period last year; 2.8174 million tons of crude steel, down 3.49 percent from the same period last year; and 2.7805 million tons of commodity materials, down 4.38 percent from the same period last year. On the sales side, the price of the company's products fell sharply in the first quarter and rebounded with improved demand in the second quarter, but on the whole, there was a big drop compared with the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the average selling price of the company's profiles, strip, and tubes was 3168, 3075, and 3447 yuan / ton. the year-on-year decline reached 6.9%, 6.6% and 7.2%. At the profit end, the gross margin per ton of steel for the company's core products has fallen sharply under the combined influence of falling prices, rising iron ore prices and rising hot metal costs. according to the company's reported and semi-annual operating data, we estimate that the gross margin per ton of steel per ton of profile, strip and pipe in the first half of the year is 172, 139 and 71 yuan per ton, respectively, down 41%, 61% and 80% over the same period last year.

The gross profit margin of sales fell, and the cost fell sharply during the period. In terms of financial data, the sharp decline in the company's gross margin per ton of steel in the first half of the year led to a decline in the company's overall gross profit margin. In the first and second quarters, the company's sales gross profit margin was 3.17% and 6.69%, down 3.05 and 4.54 percentage points from the same period last year. During the reporting period, the company's expenses decreased significantly. First, due to the change in accounting standards, transportation expenses were included in operating costs, resulting in a 49% drop in sales expenses compared with the same period last year. Second, the maturity of corporate bonds in August last year led to a sharp reduction in interest expenses, and the company's financial expenses decreased by 90% compared with the same period last year.

Construction steel profit space is expected to expand, the company's performance in the second half of the year may be repaired. The company's section steel products are mainly bars and wires. From the historical data, the bar contributes 60-70% of the company's main income and gross profit. The company's bar products are mainly construction steel, and the profitability of construction steel has a great impact on the profitability of the company. The demand for construction steel has improved seasonally since August. Based on the fact that the issuance of special bonds will accelerate in August and September, the growth rate of infrastructure is expected to further increase, and the good performance of construction steel is expected to be maintained. And the housing enterprise sales continued to grow in July, housing sales are better under the low mortgage interest rate environment, real estate steel toughness and other factors are not pessimistic about the follow-up construction steel demand, construction steel demand is still expected to return to high growth after the seasonal off-season, superimposed subsequent iron ore price decline is expected to benefit steel, the medium-term dimension of construction steel profit space is expected to expand. At the company level, the company and Xuyang Group jointly funded the establishment of Xuyang Linggang Energy Company at the end of 2019 to build a 3 million-ton coke project for the company with a construction period of four years. The profit improvement of construction steel is expected to be strong, and the company's performance repair in the second half of the year is more deterministic. We expect the company's EPS to be 0.11,0.13,0.14 yuan per share respectively from 2020 to 2022, and the current share price corresponds to a PE of 22,18,16 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating of the company.

Risk hint: the demand for construction steel is lower than expected, and the rise in ore prices affects steel profits.

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凌钢股份(600231)2020年中报点评：产销回落、钢价下行拖累公司业绩

Lingshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. (600231) 2020 China report comments: the decline in production and sales and the decline in steel prices drag on the company's performance.

Risk Disclaimer

Statement