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时代中国(1233.HK):经营稳健 城市更新加速转化

興業證券 ·  Aug 18, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Maintaining a “buy” rating, the target price is HK$20: the company is deeply involved in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and heavily stocks Guangzhou and Foshan. The land reserves are sufficient, and the transformation process of urban renewal projects is accelerating, continuing to bring high-quality and low-cost land storage to the company. We expect the company's core net profit in 2020-2022 to be 63.5/77.2/9.45 billion yuan, respectively, up 16.2%, 21.6% and 22.3% year-on-year respectively. We maintain the company's “buy” rating, with a target price of HK$20.00, based on 5.5 times and 4.5 times PE in 2020/2021, a 19% discount compared to the company's NAV and 50.4% higher than the current stock price. Profitability is stable, and performance is in line with expectations: the company's revenue for the first half of 2020 was RMB 14.93 billion (same below), a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, mainly due to the fact that the first-level land development income of the Hongwei Village project was included in other income, resulting in zero revenue from the urban renewal business. The company's gross margin for the first half of 2020 was 26.9%, down 5.6 percentage points from the previous year, mainly due to 1) high margin business city renewal without accounting; 2) the low gross margin of the Jiangmen Heshan project carried over from the current period; 3) the first half of the year was affected by public health events, and the company promoted part of the end of the session. In the first half of 2020, the company's net profit from the core was 1.56 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 8.5% from the previous year, and the net interest rate from the core to the mother was 10.4%. The company maintained a stable core profit margin level, and the interim results were in line with expectations. Land reserves are high quality and sufficient, and urban renewal transformation is accelerated: As of June 30, 2020, the company's land reserves are 21.8 million square meters, and the average land cost is 4183 yuan/square meter, which is enough to support the company's development over the next 3 to 5 years; the company already has more than 150 urban renewal projects, with a total potential construction area of more than 52 million square meters, and it is expected that the transformation can be completed within the next 7 years. In the first half of 2020, the company successfully transformed 4 urban renewal projects with a total construction area of about 1.37 million square meters and an estimated value of 42.5 billion yuan. The company will continue to promote the transformation of urban renewal projects. It is expected that 4-6 urban renewal projects will be successfully transformed in the second half of 2020, continuing to supplement the company with high-quality and low-cost land storage. Contract sales remained stable: From January to June 2020, the company's contract sales amount and area were 32.6 billion yuan and 2.34 million square meters respectively, up 4.3% and 13.5% year-on-year respectively, with an average sales price of 13,905 yuan per square meter. Affected by public health events, the company's sales progress in the first half of the year slowed. In the first half of 2020, the company completed 39.6% of the annual sales target. The market recovered in the second half of the year, and the company will accelerate sales progress. Risk warning: macroeconomic growth is slowing down; industry regulation policies are tightening; liquidity is tightening; corporate sales fall short of expectations; RMB depreciation; progress in urban renewal projects falls short of expectations

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