Event: the company released its semi-annual performance report for 2020, with operating income of 1.275 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 65.68% over the same period last year, a net profit of 276 million yuan, an increase of 37.36%, and a net profit of 283 million yuan, an increase of 41.68% over the same period last year.
Benefiting from the real estate business, performance grew steadily in the first half of the year, but revenue from logistics parks and other businesses declined as a result of the epidemic. From a business point of view, the company's income from real estate sales in the first half of the year was 1.033 billion yuan, an increase of 135.31% over the same period last year. However, due to epidemic factors, the rental rate and rent of Meiju Logistics Park were affected to a certain extent, with an income of 186 million yuan, a decrease of 11.85% over the same period last year. At the same time, it resulted in a fair value change of 16 million yuan, and other businesses also declined to a certain extent.
The decline in the gross margin of the real estate business (39.59% of the gross margin of the real estate business) led to a decline in the overall gross profit margin of 47.26% in the first half of the year.
The first phase of cold chain logistics has been put into use, and the existing business layout can support steady growth in performance for three years. During the reporting period, the first phase of the company's cold chain logistics project was put into operation, with a scale of 30,000 tons; during the epidemic, Huijianxian became a key guarantee enterprise for emergency reserve materials in Urumqi, and the rental rate of the first phase of the current project increased steadily, and it is expected that income will be gradually contributed in the future. In addition, considering the Meiju Logistics Park with stable performance contribution and the real estate business with rich project reserves, the company's existing business layout can support sustained and steady growth in performance for three years.
Promise to withdraw from the real estate business and look forward to the establishment of the core main business. The company promised not to plant the real estate business in 2019, and then focused more on the main logistics business. We analyze that the company's main business will focus on trade logistics, cold chain logistics and energy logistics, and the core business may come from cold chain logistics and energy logistics. The company has announced on June 20 that it will participate in the establishment of Jianao Railway Co., Ltd., which has taken the first step of energy logistics. Taking into account the company's strategic positioning, financial strength, the future does not rule out the possibility of extension in the field of logistics.
Profit forecast and investment advice: under the existing framework, it is estimated that the EPS from 2020 to 2022 will be 0.79, 0.96 and 0.93 respectively, corresponding to PE of 6.91, 5.69 and 5.88 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: asset impairment loss, rent level dropped sharply, extension expansion is not as expected.