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凯迪股份(605288):疫情影响上半年业绩 看好公司下半年业绩恢复和电动尾门发展

西南證券 ·  Aug 18, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Performance summary: In the first half of 2020, the company achieved revenue of 490 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%, net profit of 68.18 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.7%; net profit of non-net income of 64.59 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.2%. The company achieved revenue of 250 million yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%; net profit of 39.95 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.1%; net profit of non-retracted net profit of 38.39 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.92%. The epidemic had a great impact on the company's performance in the first half of the year, so I am optimistic that the company's performance will recover in the second half of the year The domestic epidemic in the first quarter caused the company's capacity utilization rate to be low. Affected by the foreign epidemic in the second quarter, the execution of some of the company's sales orders was delayed, and the company's sales revenue, gross profit margin, and net profit all declined sharply. In particular, the smart home sector, which is the company's main business, has been greatly affected. The smart office sector has benefited from the positive growth in procurement demand brought about by the overseas pandemic and working from home, and car tailgate shipments have also achieved steady growth. According to grassroots research, the company's demand in the smart home sector has recovered well since the third quarter, and production has basically returned to full production. We are optimistic about the recovery of the company's performance in the second half of the year. Continue to be optimistic about the development of the company's electric tailgate business. The company revealed in the interim report that its car tailgate putter has been approved by Toyota and has already entered the optional market. The company's technical and service capabilities for automobile tailgate products have been recognized by Japanese manufacturers with strict certifications, and has carried out long-term contacts and cooperation with many OEMs. New major customer supply cooperation will continue to be implemented in the next two years. In the context of an industry where domestic demand for electric tailgates explodes in the next few years, the company will use its cost and technical advantages to break the current pattern of domestic front-loading market being monopolized by foreign giants and enjoy the dividends of domestic replacement. Profit forecasts and investment advice. We lowered our performance forecast. It is estimated that the company's net profit from the company in 2020-2022 will be 1.95/271/347 million yuan, corresponding to PE 34/24/19 times. The company's low performance point has passed. We are optimistic that the company will take off for the second time as a linear-driven leader and maintain its “buy” rating. Risk warning: the risk of trade friction between China and the US; the epidemic has repeatedly affected downstream demand; market competition has intensified; and the commissioning of fund-raising projects has fallen short of expectations.

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