Main points of investment:
Introduction of state-owned assets to optimize ownership structure: company announcement, controlling shareholder Huazhong Group and its concerted actors Zhen Jie Investment, Weng Yaogen, Weng Lin and the second largest shareholder Zhou Wenyuan and Sichuan Port and Aviation Investment Group share transfer framework agreement, it is proposed to transfer 26% of the shares of the listed company to the Hong Kong Investment Group or a related party designated by the Hong Kong Investment Group, of which Weng Yaogen and his concerted actors transfer 21.58% of the total share capital. Zhou Wenyuan transferred 4.42% of the total share capital. The largest shareholder of Hong Kong Investment Group is Sichuan Transportation Investment Group. After the successful transfer, Sichuan Local SASAC will become the largest shareholder of the company. The active introduction of state-owned capital holding will help to optimize and improve the company's ownership structure, enhance the ability of corporate governance, and help the company to develop rapidly with the help of the resource advantages and industrial advantages of state-owned capital. help to further stimulate the vitality of the company's management team and achieve high-quality development of the company.
Be optimistic about 3C and 5G pull metal CNC machine tools: with the accelerated pace of commercial use of 5G, the demand for metal heat sink for base stations will be greatly increased, thus driving the demand for metal CNC machine tools. On the other hand, each round of changes in communication technology is the leading force affecting the smartphone market, and it is bound to bring the demand for replacement in the market. With the commercialization of 5G, the replacement trend of smart phones will appear. CNC machine tools are the main processing equipment for metal parts and frames of smart phones, and are expected to enter a new economic cycle. At the same time, the company continues to increase investment in the medium and large machine tool industry, and has achieved remarkable results in opening up the market of general high-end CNC machine tool products, such as auto parts, military industry, moulds and so on.
Port machinery business will hit bottom and rebound: the company complies with the market trend of port automation upgrading, increases investment in research and development of terminal automation technology, and gradually improves the automation and intelligent standards of products. The company has become a qualified equipment supplier for international first-line container terminal operators, and will seize the market opportunity of new construction and renovation of global automated terminals to further increase market share.
Maintain a "buy" rating. It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2020 to 2022 will be 15.4 billion yuan, 17.3 billion yuan and 19.2 billion yuan respectively, and its net profit will be 466 million yuan, 620 million yuan and 763 million yuan respectively. Corresponding to the previous stock price, the dynamic PE will be 14, 11 and 9 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 5G construction progress is not as expected; smartphone update speed is not as expected; competition intensifies leading to a decline in gross profit margin of metal CNC machine tool business; container handling equipment and stainless steel trading business gross profit margin is low, there is a risk of dragging down profitability.