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当代文体(600136)公司半年报:影视、体育资源储备丰富 看好2021年业绩反弹

海通證券 ·  Aug 17, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the company's performance in the first half of the year declined. The company's 20H1 achieved operating income of 332 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.67%; realized net profit of 539 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 185.86%; realized net profit after deducting non-return net profit of 548 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2182.76%; and net cash flow from operating activities was 237 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.55%. The main reason for the decline in performance was due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2020 European Cup, which was originally scheduled to be held in June-July 2020, was postponed to 2021, causing the revenue to be confirmed in the current period to be postponed until 2021, and the related expenses already paid by the company in the previous period will be confirmed within the corresponding benefit period agreed in the contract. Judging from the performance of a single quarter, 20Q2 achieved operating income of 609.62 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 87.25%; realized net profit of 459 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 180.36%; and realized net profit after deducting non-return net profit of 466 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1428%. Film and television: Actively prepare for the crew to resume work and resume production, and continue to increase the stock removal rate of movies and TV dramas. Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the company's film and television business has been greatly impacted. The filing and distribution of the film and television drama business has been delayed. The original filming plan needed to rearrange the work schedule. Its cinemas resumed operations one after another in July 2020. During the business gap period, the company strengthened the transformation of internal achievements, strengthened research and judgment on the future development trends of the film and television drama industry, analyzed data on the film and television industry for the past 5 years, and carried out work to change existing scripts based on the analysis of the age and preferences of the audience, and consolidated the company's reputation and position in the premium drama market. The TV drama “Maple Leaves Are Red” was broadcast in the first half of 2020, and the company has prepared 5 new movies and TV drama projects. Among them, “Breaking the Clouds,” “The Kingdom of the Qing Dynasty,” and “Happiness to Ten Thousand Families,” four TV dramas are expected to launch within the year, and “Life” will be launched in the first half of 2021. Sports: Top sports resources are abundant, and online communication is used to prepare for events. Affected by the epidemic, sports-related businesses have been hit hard. Sporting events such as the European Cup and Tokyo Olympics have been postponed until 2021, and marketing operations, etc. cannot be carried out normally. To this end, the company is actively taking countermeasures. In terms of commercial development, the company used an online platform to conduct negotiations with relevant parties on related business, and completed the sales of media rights for AFC projects in Indonesia, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and other countries. In terms of copyright operations, the company actively maintains customers, assists broadcasting platforms to adjust the broadcasting work of La Liga and other related tournaments in a timely manner, and also does a good job of equipment maintenance to ensure that stable signal output and data transmission can be provided in a timely manner after the tournament is resumed. In terms of stadium operations, Hanwei Sports has gradually resumed operations since May 1, 2020. The stadium has done a good job of controlling the flow of people to avoid cross-infection among people. In addition, the company reserves commercial rights in top tournaments such as AFC (AFC), UEFA (UEFA), and Spanish La Liga (Laliga), etc., including exclusive copyright and sponsorship rights for all 2023 and 2027 Asian Cups; exclusive media copyright and global sponsor rights for the 2020 European Cup and qualifiers, and the 2022 World Cup European qualifiers; and all-media rights for 6 seasons of La Liga. At the same time, the company has established cooperative links with international sports organizations, clubs, athletes, brand companies, etc., to give full play to the advantages of upstream and downstream resources, and expand the sports business landscape, profit forecasting and valuation analysis: We believe that the company has significant advantages in the fields of sports copyright and sports marketing. Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Cup and Olympics have been postponed, and the company's sports business in 2020 has been greatly impacted, and the company's business performance will hit bottom and rebound in 2021. We expect the company's EPS in 2020-2022 to be -0.61 yuan, 1.13 yuan, and 0.81 yuan, referring to companies in the same industry, 1) we gave the company a dynamic PE valuation of 13 times to 15 times in 2021, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 14.69-16.95 yuan; 2) We gave the company a dynamic PS of 2.3-2.6 times in 2021, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 14.75-16.67 yuan/share. Overall, we gave the company a reasonable value range of 14.69- At 16.95 yuan, it remains superior to the market rating. Risk warning: policy changes in the sports industry, risk of impairment of goodwill.

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