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金字火腿(002515):全面回归主业 聚焦肉制品行业发展

長城證券 ·  Aug 3, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Focus on the development of meat products, and gradually enrich the product range. 1. Focus on industrial development: In December '18, the company sold 51% of the shares of Zhongyu Capital, a holding subsidiary engaged in the pharmaceutical, medical and health care industry, and completed the procedures for equity transfer and industrial and commercial changes. In '19, Zhongyu Capital was not included in the scope of the merger. The company achieved operating income of 282 million yuan in 2019, a decrease of 33.98% from the same period last year. Mainly because Zhongyu Capital was not included in the scope of consolidated statements during the reporting period. Excluding Zhongyu Capital factors, the actual operating income for the current period increased by 30.24% over the same period last year. In 2019, the company achieved net profit of 34 million yuan, an increase of 497.94% over the same period last year (for example, excluding the Zhongyu Capital factor and excluding the impairment of the company's share repurchase receivables from Zhongyu Capital of 56.1333 million yuan, then the net profit of the company's net income to the mother was 89.6793 million yuan in '19, an increase of 112.32% over the same period last year). 2. Product categories were gradually enriched: after returning to the main business, the company increased product structure optimization and rapidly developed ham and specialty meat products, such as low-temperature sausages, spicy sausages, salami sausages, light salted meat, and sauce. Accumulate efforts in product diversification. At the same time, the company innovates in product categories, develops imported brands of meat and prepared meat products, anticipates future industry advantages, and continues to cultivate plant-based meat. Strengthen online sales, actively host fan festivals, and strengthen anchor cooperation. At the beginning of July, the Golden Sausage series joined hands with a star anchor. On July 21, the company created a live broadcast of the fan festival to strengthen interactive management on online platforms. The company continues to build the competitiveness of the online platform as an important sales channel to improve the operational advantages and conversion rate of the company's online platform. At the same time, event promotion on online platforms is also a good promotion complement to the company's products and brand image. Combining the company's resource advantages: procurement of raw materials+own cold storage capacity. 1. In terms of raw materials: In 2018, domestic pork was at a low point. The company stepped up procurement efforts to further consolidate the cost advantage of raw materials. Some of the raw materials for specialty meat products produced by the company in 2019 came from stock ingredients purchased in 2018, while the average unit price of pork purchases in 2018 fell 8.79% year on year compared to 17, increasing the profit side. 2. Own cold storage: The company has its own cold storage of 60,000 tons, which is suitable for frozen meat products such as livestock and animal husbandry, seawater products, prepared food, frozen food, frozen food, cold drinks, dairy products, dried seafood, etc. at various levels of demand. Therefore, freezers can be used for personal use and leased sales. On the basis of satisfying own development, it is expected that performance will increase. Profit forecast and investment advice: The company fully returned to the main business and focused on the development of meat products. The range of meat products is gradually being enriched, and the product structure is gradually being improved. We expect to enter a period of rapid performance development in recent years. The company's revenue for the year 20-22 is estimated to be 7.7, 12.8, and 1.82 billion yuan, net profit of 1.8 billion yuan, 320 million yuan, and 4.6 billion yuan, EPS of 0.18, 0.33, and 0.47 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 43, 24, and 17X respectively, giving it a “recommended” rating. Risk warning: trade friction, pork purchase prices fluctuate greatly, new product sales fall short of expectations, slowdown in channel development and volume development that falls short of expectations, loss of asset impairment, uncertain impact of the epidemic, food safety issues, etc.

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