Summary of the report:
Logistics is the company's main business, phased implantation of real estate business, steady growth in performance. Guanghui Logistics was listed in backdoor Continental Societe Generale in 2016. Before and after the listing, the main business of the company is located as the logistics park operation, but in order to better achieve the performance commitment, the real estate business is implanted in stages. "Trade and Logistics + Real Estate Business"
To promote the steady growth of the company's performance, the company's return to home net profit in the past three years reached a compound growth rate of 49.12%. In 2019, the contribution ratio of logistics park operation and real estate business is about 1:3. The existing territory will ensure steady growth in performance over the next three years, and the real estate business will continue to contribute stable cash flow.
Promise to withdraw from the real estate business to focus on the main logistics business, the core main business or mainly in the cold chain logistics and energy logistics, the future extension is likely to expand. The company promised to withdraw from the real estate business in 2019, focusing on expanding and strengthening the main logistics business. According to our analysis, in the future, the company's main logistics business will mainly focus on trade logistics, cold chain logistics and energy logistics, but the core business may be produced in cold chain logistics and energy logistics. From the point of view of business coordination, capital reserve and profit realization, the company's logistics sector is likely to expand.
Xinjiang cold chain logistics market is in short supply, the company layout is appropriate, and the main layout of the cold chain warehousing business with relatively high gross profit margin. The demand space of cold chain logistics in Xinjiang is large, but the capacity of cold storage in Xinjiang is only about 1 million tons, which is in short supply, and the market pattern is relatively better than that of the whole country. The company strives to lay out the warehousing link with high gross profit margin in cold chain logistics, and the first phase of "Guanghui Linxiang", a 100,000-ton cold chain logistics base, has been completed and put into use at the end of 2019, and the current rental rate has reached more than 60%. With the advance of the second phase of the project, the company may form a "tripod" pattern with Haihong cold storage and Jiuding cold storage, with a market share of more than 30%.
Equity participation will take the first step in the field of railway and energy logistics, and look forward to further layout. The company announced on June 20, 2020 to participate in the establishment of the Jiannao Railway Company, taking the first step in the layout of energy logistics. The railway will shorten the transportation distance from Xinjiang to North and Northeast China, form a complete coal collection system with the special lines of each mining area, and form another important channel for the outward transportation of Xinjiang coal.
Investment advice: the company promises to withdraw from the real estate business, expand and strengthen the main logistics business, there is a high probability of extension opportunities in the future. Under the existing framework, it is estimated that the EPS from 2020 to 2022 will be 0.790.96max 0.93 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 6.46pm 5.33max 5.50 times. Using segment valuation, the reasonable market capitalization of the company in 2020 is 9 billion yuan, which is 36% more than at present. Cover for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: asset impairment loss, rent level dropped sharply, extension expansion is not as expected.