Recommendation logic: the company focuses on recycled materials and life and health, and currently covers biomaterials, ophthalmic consumables, pharmaceuticals, cells / stem cells, etc. Biomaterials (including five diaphragm products) and artificial lenses are the company's current core products, with revenues of 200 million yuan and 144 million yuan respectively in 2019, accounting for 45.7% and 32.8% respectively, accounting for nearly 90%. From 2012 to 2019, the company's revenue increased from 147 million yuan to 438 million yuan, and it has been generally sound in recent years. With more than 2 billion yuan of new drugs for psoriasis, the company is expected to pick up the second round of growth with the gradual release of Benwei Maude, a large single drug for psoriasis. 2019 impairment losses and share payment fees affect the net profit, the current company light to the pharmaceutical equipment two-wheel drive development model, the follow-up growth is worth looking forward to.
Benvimod is a scarce new anti-psoriasis drug for topical use, and its sales are expected to exceed 2 billion. The company's 1.1 innovative drug Benvemod was launched in 2019 with mild to moderate stable psoriasis vulgaris. There are about 6.5 million patients with psoriasis in China, more than 90% of whom will be treated. It is estimated that the market size of topical anti-psoriatic drugs is 10. 7-1.33 billion yuan. At present, the most commonly used drugs are carpotriol and hormones. The results of this Vimod clinical trial are better than those of the most commonly used drug carpotriol and are expected to be replaced. The amount of money for the current course of treatment of this Vimod cream is about 3000 yuan. assuming that the company's health insurance negotiations in the future are based on price, the price of the course of treatment is reduced to 2000 yuan, and the permeability is increased to 20%. The potential space for psoriasis is expected to exceed 2 billion yuan. At the same time, the company is also conducting a Ⅱ-Ⅲ phase multicenter clinical study of Benvermaude cream in the treatment of eczema. We expect the market size of eczema indications to reach 500-3.5 billion yuan.
Biomaterial leader, layout of the main areas of regenerative medicine. Guanhao Biology is a representative enterprise in the field of heterogeneous biomaterials. At present, it has developed and listed a number of regenerative medical materials using animal sources, among which the traditional biological dura mater patch continues to consolidate its market position. The new generation of meningeal products, aseptic biological wound film, thoracic surgery series products are growing rapidly. We estimate that the national market for biological dural patches in 2018 is about 720 million yuan, and the company's related product revenue is about 144 million yuan, with a market share of 20%, second only to Tianxinfu, and is one of the market leaders. At the same time, the company's layout of cellular medicine and artificial liver is expected to contribute to new growth in the long run.
Ophthalmic consumables: the price of intraocular lens for quantity, share layout of artificial cornea market. The company through Zhuhai Xiangle exclusive agent of domestic leader Hao Haisheng's overseas subsidiary in high-end artificial lens, 2018 domestic sales market share of about 9.4%, outstanding market position. IOL collection price for quantity, the company has won the bid in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei provincial alliance, the business is expected to continue to contribute cash flow. At the same time, participate in the development of TEKIA layout intraocular lens, and participate in Guangzhou Youdeqing 49.33% equity layout artificial cornea market.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2020 to 2022 is 0.95 RMB 1.67 / 275 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.36 pm 0.63 pm 1.04 yuan respectively. The listing of the new drug Benvimod opens the room for the company's growth, and it is expected that with the release of the drug, the company's performance will usher in a stage of rapid growth. Cover for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the Vimod volume is lower than expected, the purchase of consumable belt fails to win the bid or the price reduction exceeds the expected risk, and the risk of R & D failure.