1. Generalized inspection runs through the entire semiconductor process, including third-party experimental inspection (Defect Inspection) and Metrology (Metrology), testing (Test), etc. This article is in our previous series of reports “Inspection Equipment Series: Semiconductor Defect Inspection - Who Has a Chance to Become China's Kelei? The in-depth report of “-20200224” focuses on defect detection and measurement, which is collectively referred to as inspection equipment in this article. KLA-Tecnor is the absolute king in the field of testing equipment in the semiconductor process. This article thoroughly analyzes the semiconductor testing equipment market and draws on the development history of KLA-Tencor, sorts out the progress of relevant domestic enterprises and gives investment suggestions.
2. Market size & classification: 1) There are many types of testing equipment and large market space in the chip manufacturing process. According to our estimates, the global testing equipment market space in 2020 and 2021 is estimated to be about 6.69 billion US dollars, 7.35 billion US dollars, and the market size in mainland China is about 1.64 billion, 1.76 billion US dollars. At the same time, we determine that in testing equipment, defect detection and measurement accounted for about 2/3 and 1/3 respectively, so the corresponding global semiconductor defect detection and measurement equipment market size in 2020 was about US$4.46 and 2.23 billion, respectively; in mainland China, in 2020, the two were about US$1,09 million and US$550 million respectively; in 2021, respectively, in mainland China, the two were about US$1,09 million and US$550 million respectively; in 2021 they were about US$1,170 and 590 million respectively. 2) Process inspection equipment has different classification methods, which can be divided into: defect inspection, physical property measurement; optical inspection, electron beam inspection, etc.; graphic inspection, non-graphic inspection, photolithography measurement, etc.
3. Market pattern: 1) According to SEMI data, KLA-Tencor accounts for more than half of the forward-looking global inspection and measurement market, ranking first in the industry. It can be called the king in the semiconductor inspection equipment field, and ranked fifth among all semiconductor equipment companies; followed by Applied Materials and Hitachi, both with a market share of 10%, with a total share of the top three markets reaching 75%. Other important companies include Onto (Nanometrics and Rudolph merged to surpass), Nova, etc. 2) In the field of domestic semiconductor testing equipment, related enterprises are currently implementing independent R&D and mergers and acquisitions. Great progress has been made in some segments, but overall, the localization rate is still very low (we judge below 5%), leaving market space and challenges for domestic enterprises to coexist.
Investment suggestions: Judging from the current bid situation of major domestic companies, some companies have been able to win bids for a long time in the measurement section (such as film thickness measurement equipment), etc., but there are very few winning bids for the defect detection section. The focus is on Optima Co., Ltd. (Optima): Optima's main products are defect detection equipment, and customers are large wafer and chip manufacturers such as South Korea and Japan. The country is a key expansion field in the future. Currently, existing domestic customers include Xinsheng, Zhonghuan, Yisiwei, etc., and it is expected that they will enter more customers in the future by expanding product lines and speeding up the localization process.
Risk warning: The epidemic has exceeded expectations; orders for company-related products have fallen short of expectations; trade frictions between China and the US have exceeded expectations, etc.