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科蓝软件(300663)首次覆盖报告:数据库行业前景及长期价值被低估

Kelan Software (300663) first coverage report: the prospect and long-term value of the database industry are underestimated

國盛證券 ·  Jul 11, 2020 00:00  · Researches

The bank IT subdivision leads, and the multi-field layout opens a new growth period. 1) founded in 1999, the company is the leading IT solution provider for banks in China. IDC has evaluated the company for four consecutive years: "Colin Software has always been in the leading position in the Internet banking (direct selling banking), electronic channels, mobile banking and other solutions market." From more than 20 years of development history, the company in the bank IT online technology accumulation is rich, and R & D forward-looking. At present, it has covered 300 + bank customers, and the total number of landing projects has reached 2000. 2) the real controller has 15 years of experience in overseas top financial database to ensure the company's strategic development direction in the field of financial IT and database. In particular, in 2018, the company formally acquired a 67.15% stake in South Korea's SUNJE SOFT Co., Ltd. with advanced 73 million yuan, and entered the 10 billion high-end domestic database market. 3) the leading position of the company has also been recognized by Ali, and Yunxin Investment, a subsidiary of Ant Financial Services Group, holds a 3.4% stake in the company. The two sides have carried out in-depth cooperation in the joint research and development of Internet mobile financial platform and financial core system products, technology and business to achieve comprehensive empowerment.

Database localization of 10 billion-level market demand, the company's intellectual property rights and performance advantages. 1) the global database software market is worth US $46.1 billion in 2018 and is expected to reach US $54.9 billion in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.1%. China's database software market is growing steadily, and the China Research Institute of Industry estimates that the market size will reach 20 billion yuan by 2020. Oracle, IBM and other enterprises occupy the main domestic market share for a long time because of their first-mover advantages and high technical barriers. 2) the trend of information innovation under the promotion of policies, domestic databases may open tens of billions of replacement space, especially in the financial sector. Domestic databases launched by technology giants such as BABA and Huawei have come to the fore in some scenarios and have been gradually replaced by a number of mainstream banks. 3) in 2018, the company acquired 67.15% of South Korea's SUNJE SOFT, and owns the complete independent intellectual property rights of Goldilocks, a distributed memory database product developed by SUNJE SOFT. From 2019 to 2020, the company completed the adaptation of the database to other systems, such as Kingdee Apusic application server software, Huawei Kunpeng system, etc., to improve the applicability of its database products. The company owns 100% intellectual property rights of its distributed memory database product Goldilocks, which can completely avoid property rights and closed source risks. Moreover, the company's products have experienced a number of global top customer cases, such as SK Telecom, China Unicom, etc., its performance is reliable and mature, can meet complex business needs. Under the trend of the innovation industry of IT infrastructure, the company's database products have outstanding advantages in intellectual property rights and performance, and are expected to enjoy the localization dividend of the 10 billion-level market.

Under the policy and online trend, the domestic banking IT industry will continue to grow steadily. 1) according to the IDC report, the bank IT expects the industry to grow by more than 20%. The domestic market will reach 100 billion yuan in 2023. Among them, the size of the Internet banking sub-market is 1.42 billion yuan, and the market share of the leading enterprise Kelan is 17%; the size of the Internet banking sub-market is about 2.55 billion yuan, and the combined market share of the two leading manufacturers Kelan and Yuxin is 35.4%; the size of the mobile banking sub-market is about 1.23 billion yuan, and the combined market share of leading manufacturers Colan and Pactera Jinxin is about 30%. 2) in recent years, a number of national policies encourage banks and other financial institutions to invest in bank informatization. State-owned banks and joint-stock banks focus more on promoting the scene application of hot technologies, and promote the online and intelligent of traditional business through digital transformation. As a domestic leader in subdivisions such as Internet banking, the company will benefit from the trend of online and intelligent, and the company's main business is expected to maintain a steady and rapid development momentum in the next few years.

Cover for the first time, giving a "buy" rating. According to the key assumptions, the operating income from 2020 to 2022 is expected to be 1.206 billion yuan, 1.575 billion yuan and 2.046 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit from 2020 to 2022 is expected to be 67 million yuan, 95 million yuan and 146 million yuan respectively. Considering the leading position of bank IT subdivision industry and the trend of database innovation industry, it covers for the first time and gives a "buy" rating.

Risk hints: the database business does not advance as expected; the risk of rising staff compensation; the risk that the forecast hypothesis is different from the actual situation.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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