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金字火腿(002515):二季度业绩有望实现高增长 成本+产品+渠道增厚业绩确定性

長城證券 ·  Jul 8, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  The company expects net profit from 1H20 to 63 million yuan to 85 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase range of 60.61% to 116.69%. According to the estimated growth rate range for the first half of the year, net profit for 2Q20 is expected to be 14.12 million yuan to 36.12 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth range of 92.12% to 391.56%. The company's 1Q20 revenue was 191 million yuan, up 103.34% year on year. We expect the year-on-year growth rate in 2Q20 to maintain the level of growth in the first quarter, mainly driven by the following reasons: 1. Online business: The company continues to cooperate with platforms such as content e-commerce, live streaming by influencers, social e-commerce, and fresh e-commerce, and e-commerce channels drive rapid growth in online business. We expect the company's online sales revenue from January to June 2020 to increase significantly compared to the same period last year. 2. New business: Revenue from imported branded meat and prepared meat products has increased. In 2Q20, 3 new prepared meat products were launched. Demand lays an opportunity for development, and the company's technological advantages are empowering. 1. Demand on the ToB side and ToC side provides opportunities for the development of prepared meat products: ToB side: The pace of urban life is speeding up, cooking time is being compressed, and the processing of meat products is convenient and convenient; consumer demand for healthy and nutritious diets is growing. ToC side: The cost of raw materials, space, manpower, etc. of catering companies is under pressure, and pre-prepared meat products have an impact on improving the cost side. 2. Technical advantages: The company has been deeply involved in the meat products industry for many years, accumulating experience and technology in meat product texture processing, and empowering the meat preparation business. 3. The company listed 3 types of prepared meat products in 2Q20, namely “10 degrees fresh” low temperature sausage, steak, and light salted meat. The product terminal has received good feedback, and it is expected that volume will drive revenue growth. Cost advantage+product optimization+channel innovation, three directions help increase performance certainty. 1. The production cost advantage is obvious, increasing profit elasticity. The company has its own cold storage of 60,000 tons. During the period of low pork prices in 2018, foreign import procurement efforts were stepped up to reduce the cost side. As of April 22, 2020, the company has imported 8887.55 tons of pork in stock and 10397.45 tons in transit, for a total of 19,285 tons, which is expected to guarantee sufficient raw materials for production this year and next two years. 2. Product structure optimization to improve profit levels. Compared with traditional ham, specialty meat products such as sausages, bacon, bacon, etc. have a short production cycle and high consumption frequency; at the end of '19, the company added branded meat business, with significant growth; and promoted the launch of new prepared meat products in '20. 3. The share of online sales has increased, growing rapidly, and vigorously developing online channels. The company will establish a new marketing network with wider coverage, leading and backbone anchors will cooperate in parallel, and e-commerce channels will be fully promoted. Profit forecast and investment suggestions: The company's specialty meat products+prepared meat products+imported brand meat are expected to grow rapidly. The ham business is growing steadily, the blue ocean of plant-based meat has a first-mover advantage, and the growth outlook is clear. We expect to enter a period of rapid performance development in recent years. The company's revenue for the year 20-22 is estimated to be 7.7, 12.8, and 1.82 billion yuan, net profit of 1.8 billion yuan, 320 million yuan, and 4.6 billion yuan, EPS of 0.18, 0.33, and 0.47 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE of 37, 21, and 14X respectively, giving it a “recommended” rating. Risk warning: trade friction, pork purchase prices fluctuate greatly, new product sales fall short of expectations, slow channel development, loss of asset impairment, uncertain impact of the epidemic, food safety issues, etc.

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