Core viewpoints
On July 10, the company's board of directors examined and approved a bill to increase the financing quota in 2020 (the financing quota is to be increased by 33.607 billion yuan for the whole year). In the first half of the year, the financing of the company was smooth, and the loan balance was double that at the end of 2019. In July, ABS and corporate bonds were approved to open up multiple financing channels. The company's land sales grew by leaps and bounds in the first half of the year, and full-year sales are expected to have an impact on 350-40 billion. We maintain the 2020-2022 return net profit forecast, with an estimated EPS of 1.12,1.41,1.77 yuan (the latest equity translation) and a "buy" rating.
The financing quota continues to increase in 2020, highlighting the blueprint for rapid growth.
Following the proposal on the annual planned financing quota of 30.773 billion yuan proposed by the company in January 2020, the board of directors of the company deliberated and passed the "bill on increasing the financing quota for 202020" on July 10. in order to meet the needs of the company's business development and improve the efficiency of decision-making, it is proposed to increase the financing quota by 33.607 billion yuan for the whole year, and the planned financing cost will not exceed 10%. The company plans to have a financing quota of 30.7 billion at the beginning of 2020. the increase in the financing quota means that the company is progressing smoothly in the first half of the year and continues to grow in the second half of the year. 2 billion ABS was approved on July 9, and 700 million corporate bonds were approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission on July 13.
The loan balance at the end of June 2020 is double that at the end of 2019, and the financing advantage continues to be realized.
At the end of June 2020, the company had a loan balance of 41.378 billion yuan, with a cumulative net loan of 20.03 billion yuan in the first half of the year, and 319.92% of its net assets at the end of 2019. Of the net new loans, trust plans, bank loans and other loans accounted for 71%, 22% and 11%, while related loans and entrusted loans decreased by 893 million yuan. The whole industry is currently in the deleveraging stage, and the company's counter-trend plus leverage reflects strong growth expectations, as well as resource endowment and group support in the context of central enterprises.
Sales grow by leaps and bounds, showing the true nature of the dark horse.
According to Carey statistics, in the first half of 2020, the company's full-caliber sales amount was 20.63 billion yuan, and the equity amount was 12.14 billion yuan, an increase of 121% and 112% over the same period last year, ranking in the forefront of A-share listed housing enterprises. In addition, financing actively promoted the great-leap-forward growth of goods value. in the first half of the year, the value of full-caliber goods increased by 63.2 billion yuan, ranking 23rd in the country. The company has abundant goods value and is concentrated in the core first-and second-tier cities. The superimposed financing advantage of market-oriented reform is expected to accelerate the turnover of high-quality resources. We believe that the company's annual sales are expected to launch an impact on 350-40 billion.
Small stature and big dream, maintain "buy" rating
The company is the only A-share real estate platform under Zhongjiajian Group, which is expected to benefit from the whole industry chain and financing support of the group, and the group has a strong demand for being stronger and bigger. Promise to start the deep integration of other housing-related enterprises and Zhongjiao Real Estate by the end of 2021 (source: 2019 annual report). Li Yongqian, a former Greentown core executive, took office to accelerate market-oriented reform, and the company is expected to usher in a period of comprehensive growth. We maintain the 2020-2022 homing net profit forecast, with an estimated EPS of 1.12,1.41,1.77 yuan (based on the latest equity conversion). With reference to the comparable company's average PE valuation of 7.3 times in 2020, taking into account the expectation of high sales and land growth, we believe that the company's reasonable PE valuation in 2020 is 9.5-10 times, the target price is 10.64-11.20 yuan, the previous value (10.22-10.95 yuan), and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: epidemic development uncertainty, industry policy risk, industry downside risk, business risk.
