Event: company announcement 2020H1 performance forecast, the net profit belonging to the shareholders of the listed company is-17 million yuan-12 million yuan, an increase of 36% over the same period last year.
The higher-than-expected growth in revenue corroborates the bank's online leadership position of IT, and net profit is mainly affected by seasonality.
1) according to the contents of the announcement, under the influence of the domestic epidemic in the first half of this year, the online trend of financial IT business showed explosive growth, the number of orders in the second quarter increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the company's operating revenue is expected to increase by 30% over the same period last year. The higher-than-expected revenue growth under the online trend testifies to the company's rich accumulation of online IT products and technology in banks, especially in the domestic leading position in business areas such as online banking. In addition, it also reflects the high prosperity of the bank IT industry. 2) considering the obvious seasonal characteristics of the project completion acceptance of the bank IT, the operating income over the years is mainly recognized in the fourth quarter, but the expenses during the period are more balanced, so that the net profit in the first half of the year is negative.
The bank IT is subdivided into the leading domestic enterprises, and the founder gene decides that the financial IT and database can be deeply distributed. 1) the company is the leading IT solution provider for banks in China. From more than 20 years of development history, the company in the bank IT online technology accumulation is rich, and R & D forward-looking. At present, it has covered 300 + bank customers, and the total number of landing projects has reached 2000. 2) the real controller has 15 years of experience in overseas top financial database to ensure the company's strategic development direction in the field of financial IT and database. In particular, the company formally acquired a 67.15% stake in South Korea's SUNJESOFT Co., Ltd. with 73 million yuan in cash in 2018 to enter the high-end domestic database market.
Database localization of 10 billion-level market demand, the company's intellectual property rights and performance advantages. 1) the global database software market is worth US $46.1 billion in 2018 and is expected to reach US $54.9 billion in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.1%. China's database software market is growing steadily, and the China Research Institute of Industry estimates that the market size will reach 20 billion yuan by 2020. Oracle, IBM and other enterprises occupy the main domestic market share for a long time because of their first-mover advantages and high technical barriers. 2) the trend of information innovation under the promotion of policies, domestic databases may open tens of billions of replacement space, especially in the financial sector. Domestic databases launched by technology giants such as BABA and Huawei have come to the fore in some scenarios and have been gradually replaced by a number of mainstream banks. 3) in 2018, the company acquired 67.15% of South Korea's SUNJE SOFT, and owns the complete independent intellectual property rights of Goldilocks, a distributed memory database product developed by SUNJE SOFT. Moreover, the company's products have experienced a number of global top customer cases, such as SK Telecom, China Unicom, etc., its performance is reliable and mature, can meet complex business needs. Under the trend of the innovation industry of IT infrastructure, the company's database products have outstanding advantages in intellectual property rights and performance, and are expected to enjoy the localization dividend of the 10 billion-level market.
Maintain a "buy" rating. According to the key assumptions, the operating income from 2020 to 2022 is expected to be 1.206 billion yuan, 1.575 billion yuan and 2.046 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit from 2020 to 2022 is expected to be 67 million yuan, 95 million yuan and 146 million yuan respectively. Consider the leading position of bank IT segment industry and the trend of database innovation industry, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the database business does not advance as expected; the risk of rising staff compensation; the risk that the forecast hypothesis is different from the actual situation.