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万东医疗(600055):DR及移动DR持续靓丽

華泰證券 ·  Jul 2, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Anti-epidemic pioneer, head high, and forge ahead, the company released its 2020 semi-annual performance forecast on July 2. The company expects 1H20 to achieve net profit of 100—106 million yuan, an increase of 126%-139% over the previous year, and achieve net profit after deducting 0.94 to 100 million yuan, an increase of 139%-155% over the previous year. According to performance forecasts, net profit from the second quarter grew by 28%-43%, net profit from non-return net profit grew by 23%-39%, and the profit side growth rate in the second quarter continued a high growth trend. We believe that based on: 1) the increase in demand for mobile DR exports from the overseas epidemic in the second quarter; 2) domestic demand for fixed DR was still strong; and 3) the share of mobile DR for high-margin products increased. We slightly adjusted our profit forecast. We expect the company's EPS for 20-22 to be 0.44/0.51/0.62 yuan, and adjust the target price to 18.19-19.08 yuan to maintain the “buy” rating. Mobile DR and DR for anti-epidemic products continue to gain strength 1) Mobile DR: The company mainly supplied domestic demand from affected regions in the first quarter, and overseas demand increased from the second quarter. We expect 1H20 mobile DR sales to exceed 550 units, increasing several times over the previous year, and is expected to continue the high growth trend throughout the year; 2) Fixed DR: Sales increased significantly during the pandemic, and we expect 1H20 fixed DR sales to grow by more than 60% year on year. Considering that large-scale grassroots collection standards are generally concentrated in the second half of the year (especially the fourth quarter), we are optimistic that DR will continue the rapid volume trend in the second half of the year. Other products: MRI, CT, DSA, etc. gradually recovered month-on-month 1) MRI: We expect 2Q20 sales to improve month-on-month. The company's 1.48T superconductor was approved at the end of 19. Its imaging performance is excellent, and there is no need for a certificate when entering the hospital. It is expected that subsequent permanent magnets will be relatively stable, and the superconductivity will gradually gain strength; 2) CT: small in size, in the rapid release stage, and is expected to become another pillar of the company's production line after 3-5 years; 3) DSA: In the context of the cancellation of the configuration+upgrading of county hospitals, DSA ushered in an opportunity to achieve steady growth in 20 years; 4) Ultrasound: 1Q20 has been approved for 3 more products, and we expect to receive 3 more batches within the year A series of products, contributing to additional volume 。 Wanliyun: The layout is long-term. Wanliyun, a subsidiary with parallel online and offline business, relies on the platform advantages of Ali Health, Wandong Medical, Yuyue Group, and Meinian Health to build a medical imaging big data cloud platform to provide remote medical imaging services (online), imaging cloud technology services, and third-party medical imaging center services (offline). By the end of '19, Wanliyun had more than 4,600 online hospitals, ranking first in the industry. The video AI that collaborated with Ali Health, Dharma Institute, etc. viewed nearly 20,000 cases per day in 2019. We expect Wanli Cloud to be profitable in 2020. Leading domestic medical equipment suppliers maintain “buy” ratings to consider the recovery cycle of MRI, DSA and other businesses under the pandemic. We have slightly adjusted our profit forecast. Net profit for 20-22 is expected to be 2.40/2.77/333 million yuan (value before 20/21 was 2.44/280 million yuan), an increase of 42%/15%/20% over the previous year. The current stock price corresponds to the 20-22 PE valuation of 35x/31x/25x. Compared with comparable companies, the compounded growth rate of the company's net profit in 20-22 was slightly lower (25% vs. 34% of the average value of comparable companies), and the overseas epidemic's demand for mobile DR was lower than that of monitors, ventilators, etc. (relatively more urgently needed) products. We gave the company a PE valuation of 41x-43x in 2020 (the average PE valuation of comparable companies in 2020 was 52x), and the target price was adjusted to 18.19-19.08 yuan (the original value was 14.44-15.35 yuan), maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: Risk of core product sales falling short of expectations, risk of core product bidding price reduction.

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