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金达威(002626)公司系列报告3:从辅酶Q10到辅酶I 辅酶的世界很精彩

長城證券 ·  Jul 8, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Incident: DRB, a health products subsidiary of Jindawei, listed NMN products. Currently, the Tmall flagship store sells 1,599 yuan/bottle. The efficacy of NMN/NAD+ is endorsed by the world's top journals Cell and Nature. The clinical effects are positive, and there is broad scope for future application: Cell, Nature and other world top journals have published many articles on the efficacy of NMN/NAD+. The main effects focus on anti-aging, DNA repair, diabetes, exercise and weight loss, neurocognition, cardiovascular, alcohol relief, liver protection, eyesight protection, and hearing protection. The revealed clinical application effects of NMN are relatively positive, and no toxic substances or side effects of NMN have been found in any experiments, so there is broad scope for future application. The industrialization process is in its infancy. Consumers pay more attention to price, brand, and certification, and Jindawei products are more competitive: in 2016, NMN was commercialized for the first time by Nihon Shinhwa Corporation. The industrialization process has developed rapidly in recent years, and the products on the market mainly come from the US, Hong Kong, and Japan. Consumers pay more attention to price, brand, and certification. The Tmall flagship store, a subsidiary of Jindawei DRB, currently sells for 1,599 yuan/bottle, which is at a low level in the industry. The production plant Vit-Best is an FDA registered cGMP factory. It has strict quality control through ISO9001, HACCP, and NSF multiple third party agencies. The production process used is a fourth-generation enzymatic process. The product is highly active and competitive. Investment suggestions: This year, Jindawei Coenzyme Q10 is expected to profit more than 600 million yuan, vitamin A and D3 is expected to profit about 600 million yuan, and branded health products are expected to profit more than 100 million yuan. The company's 2020-2022 EPS is expected to be 2.04, 2.35, and 2.60 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 13.0 times, 11.3 times, and 10.2 times, respectively, maintaining the “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: market expansion falls short of expectations, downstream demand falls short of expectations, sharp drop in product prices, large fluctuations in raw material prices, environmental protection risks, production safety risks

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