Overview of events
The company issued a half-year performance forecast for 2020 on July 3, with operating income of 1.2218098 billion yuan to 1.3032638 billion yuan, an increase of 125% to 140% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 466.6081 million yuan to 47899.59 yuan belonging to shareholders of listed companies, an increase of 465% to 480% over the same period last year. The impact of non-recurrent profit and loss on net profit is expected to be about 3300 yuan, mainly from government subsidies.
Analysis and judgment:
The company's half-year performance exceeded expectations, and overseas performance contributed significantly.
Taking the median calculation, the company's half-year income in 2020 is about 1.263 billion yuan, an increase of 132.50% over the same period last year, and the net profit is about 473 million yuan, an increase of 472.50% over the same period last year, far exceeding expectations; while the company's 2019 income is 1.136 billion yuan, and its net profit is 132 million yuan. The company's half-year income and net profit in 2020 far exceed the whole of 2019, and the company's development has entered a new period.
According to the company's product characteristics, we expect the company's revenue to grow by more than 200% in the second quarter compared with the same period last year, including single-digit growth in domestic business revenue and more than 400% in overseas business revenue compared with the same period last year. The main source of growth is the rapid sales of monitoring, blood gas and ECG in the international market. The company's product brand image has been greatly improved in this epidemic. In terms of expenses, in the first half of 2019, the company's sales expenses, management expenses and R & D expenses accounted for 21.53% of revenue, respectively. 7.34% of revenue 16.53%. In view of the rapid growth of the company's revenue, we judge that the proportion of several expenses of the company has dropped significantly.
The overseas epidemic has far exceeded expectations. As of July 4, the cumulative number of confirmed cases overseas has exceeded 11 million, with an increase of about 40,000 per day, while the cumulative number of confirmed cases in China has reached 85000. Many of the company's product lines benefited from the epidemic, as indicated in our previous in-depth reports and multiple review follow-up reports, the company's monitor, ECG and IVD product lines continued to benefit from the continuous fermentation of the epidemic. In 2019, the company's three product lines accounted for 35%, 18% and 13% of the company's business income, respectively, that is, 66% of the products benefited from the epidemic. In addition, the company has a sound overseas layout, accounting for about 56% of overseas business revenue in 2019. The company is a typical international company.
In fact, the epidemic situation at home and abroad leads to the rapid release of the company's products, which can be predicted from the increase in the number of the company's production lines. The company has 6 conventional production lines in previous years. In order to meet the order demand of all parts of the country during the anti-epidemic period, the company immediately resumed work and production, and expanded the number of conventional production lines, the peak number of production lines reached 12. After the outbreak of the overseas epidemic, the company introduced 8 more automated production lines on the basis of 12 production lines, with a peak production line of more than 20 lines. At the same time, in order to further meet the order demand, the company also recruited more than 300 front-line workers.
The company's products have been researched and developed for many years to continuously improve the competitiveness of products.
From its listing in 2011 to the end of 2019, the company has invested 1.255 billion yuan in research and development. At present, the company has obtained a total of 330invention patents, 290 utility models and 140appearance designs. The company continues to launch new products such as Acclarix AX3 portable all-digital color ultrasound diagnostic system, m36X magnetic sensitive immune analyzer, SP-1200 specific protein immune analyzer, X series multi-parameter monitor, biological stimulation feedback instrument and so on in life monitoring, maternal and child, in vitro diagnosis, color ultrasound product line.
Maintain a "buy" rating
In view of the fact that the company's orders exceeded expectations, the epidemic led the company's IVD equipment to be sold to the hospital, resulting in a continuous improvement in the volume of consumables and the company's brand strength. We raised the company's performance. It is estimated that the revenue in 2020-2022 will be 1.910 billion yuan (the original income in 2020-2022 is 14,551,703 million yuan), and the growth rate is 68.1%, 0.0%, 10.5% respectively. The return net profit is 643 million yuan (2.42 million yuan for 2020 and 2022), with a growth rate of 387.4% and 6.4%, respectively, and the PE is 17X/17X/16X in 202022. Taking into account the company's unique layout in in vitro diagnosis and the advantages of blood gas segmentation, the company's globalization ability and the brand power brought about by the epidemic, the "Buy" rating is maintained.
Risk hint
The supply of capacity is not timely, the supply chain is blocked, and overseas sales are not as expected.
