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佳华科技(688051)首次覆盖报告:转型数据运营SAAS服务的智慧环保领航者

國盛證券 ·  Jul 10, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  An IoT technology innovator who is deeply involved in environmentally friendly racetracks and transforms data operation services. The company was founded in 2004. After determining smart environmental protection and smart city business as the main driving points, the new business revenue CAGR reached 92.5% in 2016-2019, and the revenue share soared from 14% to 60%. The company's net profit from its parent grew by more than 75% for two consecutive years. The gross margin increased from 32.6% in 2016 to 51.5% in 2020 Q1, and the transformation effect was obvious. The card level is a high-value link in the industrial chain, and the comparative advantage of differentiation is obvious. The policy opens up a 10-billion-level smart environmental data operation service market. The company's smart environmental protection business is centered on big data operation services to help environmental protection departments improve management efficiency. Through card slot big data operations, a high-value link in the smart environmental protection industry chain, the gross margin of the smart environmental protection business reached 60.5% in 2019, far exceeding competitors. Compared with traditional IoT or environmental monitoring equipment companies, the company has more than 13 years of industry accumulation in the field of environmental protection, and strong technical strength in the three core fields of IOT platforms, cloud chain databases, and artificial intelligence, with obvious differentiation advantages. We estimate that the smart environmental data operation service market is expected to reach 142 billion yuan/year. After the company rapidly expands to 41 new cities according to the plan in the next two years, the annual operating service fee revenue alone is expected to reach nearly 900 million yuan starting in 2022. At the same time, the company uses environmental protection as a traffic entry point to provide data operation services across departments in the fields of urban management, housing and construction, etc., which is expected to drive collaborative development of smart city business. For the first time, we gave the company a “buy” rating. We gave the company a target market value of 11.8 billion yuan in 2020. Under a neutral assumption, the long-term market capitalization space is 25.1 billion yuan. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 772 million yuan, 1,099 million yuan, and 1,413 million yuan in 2020-2022, and corresponding net profit of 191 million yuan, 305 million yuan, and 407 million yuan respectively. Considering the company's differentiated comparative advantages and card position in the high-value segment of smart environmental protection, 1.2 times PEG was given, corresponding to a target market value of 11.8 billion yuan in 2020. In the long run, as the government gradually pays attention to smart environmental informatization, especially data operation services that enable multi-departmental data linkage and collaboration, under neutral expectations, we expect the company's data operation service revenue scale to be 2,09 billion yuan, and the long-term market capitalization space is expected to reach 25.1 billion yuan, corresponding to 12 times the PS valuation. Risk warning: risk of increased market competition; risk of technological innovation; risk of falling gross margin; risk of deviation in assumptions and estimates.

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