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溢多利(300381)深度报告:“替抗”打开需求空间

東興證券 ·  Jul 9, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Through endogenous and epitaxial development, Yiduoli has gradually formed three series of product lines: biological enzyme preparations, steroidal hormone raw materials, and functional feed additives. It is the first listed company in China's bioenzyme preparation industry and a highly competitive steroidal hormone pharmaceutical company in the world. Feed “alternative antibodies” brought 10 billion dollars in new markets. Restricting resistance and banning resistance is an inevitable choice for the green development of the aquaculture industry and to ensure food safety. On July 1, 2020, feed manufacturers in China began a complete ban on resistance. Based on overseas experience, we believe that under the current farming structure in China, the short-term ban on feed resistance will lead to an increase in the amount of therapeutic antibiotics used, the total amount of antibiotics used in the aquaculture industry may not decrease significantly, and the breeding side may add antibiotics on its own during the feeding process. As far as long-term trends are concerned, reducing resistance in the farming chain is the general trend. In the future, policy supervision will be further extended to the farming process and the issuance of veterinary prescriptions. As the policy gradually becomes stricter, the amount of antibiotics used in the aquaculture industry will gradually decline. Antibiotic alternatives with growth-promoting and disease-prevention functions are expected to open up market space. We calculated the market space for alternative antimicrobial products from the perspective of cost substitution for antibiotic products and compensation for breeding efficiency. Combining the two calculation results, we believe that the potential market space for anti-antibody products exceeds 10 billion yuan. Epituoli's “alternative” business is expected to usher in relatively rapid growth. The company has formed three types of alternative products: plant extract, plant extract+enzyme preparation, and plant extract+acidifier. Combining the company's many years of marketing channel advantages and brand advantages in agriculture and animal husbandry, the company's alternative products have now entered the market cultivation and trial stage. It is expected that starting in the second half of this year, the company's business will usher in significant performance growth. Company profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's net profit for 2020 to 2022 to be $2.07, 2.63 million, and 334 million yuan, respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.44, 0.55, and 0.71 yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to the 2020-2022 P/E values of 36, 29, and 23 times, respectively. The first coverage gave it a “Highly Recommended” rating. Risk warning: downstream demand release falls short of expectations; new production capacity investment falls short of expectations; risk of impairment of goodwill.

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