Incident: The company collaborated with Sri Lankan Microbes on an mRNA vaccine research and development project and obtained exclusive global authorization for the vaccine.
The company invested 351 million yuan in Sri Lankan microbiology in stages according to the progress of research and development of COVID-19 vaccines, tuberculosis vaccines and influenza vaccines. Sri Lankan Microbiology urgently launched the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine research and development project in January 2020. It was carried out by Sri Lankan Microbiology in cooperation with the Chinese Center for Disease Prevention and Control and Dongfang Hospital affiliated to Tongji University. It is one of the few mRNA vaccine research and development technology routes in China. At present, pharmacodynamics studies of all vaccine candidates in the project have been completed, and clinical trials are expected to begin in the near future.
The new active drug successfully entered the 2019 medical insurance catalogue, and sales will continue to increase. In 2019, sales of new drugs were 1.75 million, an increase of 47.7% over the previous year. Since entering the 2017 medical insurance catalogue, the volume effect has been remarkable, with a compound growth rate of 67.8% in 2016-2019. In November 2019, Xinxun successfully entered the new medical insurance catalogue, with a price reduction of 23.9%. Continued sales are worth looking forward to, and 2020Q1 revenue was not significantly affected. The company's new active patent period is from December 30, 2011 to December 29, 2031, which has high technical barriers and long-term competitiveness. The promotion fee for new probiotics is reasonable. It is expected that sales of new probiotics will continue to grow rapidly as the domestic epidemic eases.
The company invests in the field of cardiovascular implants. The company plans to invest 70 million yuan in Beijing Amate, with a shareholding ratio of 9.86%. Beijing Amate is engaged in cardiovascular intervention product research and development. It has the world's leading patented technology for 3D 4-axis precision rapid printing. Currently, there are 4 research projects, including stent positioning systems. Two of them are in clinical trials, one has been applied for clinical trials, and one is in the development stage. After the investment, the company will obtain exclusive sales and promotion rights for the above 4 products in the Chinese market. The company has accumulated in the cardiovascular field for many years. After the successful launch of Amet products in the future, it will enrich the growth points of the company's performance.
Profit forecasts and investment recommendations. EPS is expected to be 1.63 yuan, 2.02 yuan, and 2.43 yuan respectively in 2020-2022, with net profit growth of about 25% in the next three years. Maintain the “buy” rating by considering the release effect of the company's new active drug after entering the new medical insurance and the company's layout in the field of cardiovascular implants.
Risk warning: Sales of new drugs fell short of expectations, sales of Imdo fell short of expectations, and there is a risk that COVID-19 vaccine development will fail.
