Event
According to the company's performance forecast, it is estimated that 2020H1 belongs to the shareholders of listed companies with a net profit of 8799.90-105.5988 million yuan, an increase of 50% and 80% over the same period last year.
Brief comment
The growth rate of the mid-2020 report is 50%, 80%, which is much higher than expected. 2020Q1 revenue + 3.72%, performance-15.78%, calculated according to the median of the semi-annual performance range of 8800-105.6 million yuan, Q2 performance growth rate of 130% in a single quarter. The epidemic led to a backlog of wind power structural glue inventory, with a 2020Q1 inventory balance of 207 million yuan (+ 43.60% compared with the same period last year). With the resumption of work and production, the inventory of wind glue was digested in Q2, superimposed by the rush to install onshore wind power, and the performance in the second quarter greatly exceeded expectations. The hot market of wind power structural glue is expected to continue in the second half of the year, so we have also adjusted the company's profit forecast.
In December 2019, the company launched a step-by-step acquisition of Beijing Hanyu, which is engaged in reliability testing tests such as component screening, destructive physical analysis (DPA) and test program development, and is in an industry-leading position in testing capability, category and throughput. In February 2020, 70 million of the company acquired 8.51% of the equity, the first small step was completed; the second step was 286 million yuan transferred 34.75% of the equity, originally planned to be completed before June 30, affected by the epidemic has been delayed, mergers and acquisitions work steadily, waiting for the results. Jing Hanyu's committed performance from 2020 to 2023 is 92 million yuan, 106 million yuan, 122 million yuan and 142 million yuan respectively. Mergers and acquisitions will greatly enhance the performance of listed companies and improve the layout of military business.
Military electromagnetic compatibility business (required science and technology) with the resumption of work and production performance gradually improved, in April the company announced plans to invest in the construction of southwest industrial base in Chengdu, with a total investment of 500 million yuan, including electromagnetic compatibility, aerospace electronic system-level equipment, military electronic adhesive, electronic components testing and other industrialization projects, this project is conducive to the layout of the company's military science and technology plate in the southwest, and further enhance competitiveness.
Profit forecast: considering the higher-than-expected growth of wind power structural glue business, we raise our profit forecast. The estimated net profit for 20-22 years is 1.93 (+ 37.70%), 2.53 (+ 31.29%) and 3.37 (+ 3.335%) respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating. Assuming that Jinghanyu completely merges the table next year, regardless of the time, the performance of the 2021 prep exam is about 305 million yuan, and the target market value is about 8 billion yuan.
Risk hints: Jing Hanyu's acquisition progress is not as expected, raw material price fluctuations, goodwill impairment risk, etc.