Investment logic
Identity information integrated service provider, diversified business territory. The company is the world's leading identity information integrated service provider, committed to providing industry customers with both hardware and software solutions for online and offline identity identification and management applications. In recent years, the company uses intelligent transportation and smart household administration to realize the product integration and industrial chain extension of identity information integrated services, and expand the sustainable development space of the company in the future.
Take a 15.5% stake in Lantaiyuan and cut into the bus SaaS business. Lan Taiyuan is the earliest brand supplier and service provider specializing in providing overall solutions for public transport information construction in China. On June 16, 2020, the company plans to buy shares in Lantaiyuan with its own capital of 20.1479 million yuan, holding 15.5% of its shares. After the landing of the shares, the new intelligent public transport business will be mainly based on the bus SaaS business. Corresponding to the division of the three stages of intelligent transportation, the company will launch a series of new solutions. Realize the transformation of the company's business from the soft and hard business based on the payment terminal to the bus big data intelligent management platform and SaaS operation.
The advantage of channel is obvious, and the demand of bus SaaS is wide. In the public transport (bus + track) industry, the company's payment acceptance terminals and solutions have covered more than 160 cities and 300000 vehicle terminals in Shenzhen, Chongqing, Nanchang and other countries. The bus SaaS solution launched by the company covers front-end intelligent dispatching, passenger flow statistics and back-end bus companies' human, financial, material and other needs, which can effectively help bus companies to achieve the goal of reducing costs and increasing efficiency. At present, there are about 700,000 buses in stock in China. According to the annual SaaS cost of 4000 yuan per bike, the SaaS business space of public transportation is about 3 billion yuan.
Intelligent household administration business pushes through the old and brings forth the new, focusing on intelligent system construction. The company has worked hard in the field of smart card for many years, and has made breakthroughs in accepting equipment, intelligent process construction and other business. the company has actively expanded the business of intelligent public security and intelligent government affairs, and launched various solutions for unified payment, intelligent acceptance and online management of documents, so as to achieve intelligent and intelligent public services and enhance the company's profit growth point and revenue scale.
Profit Forecast and valuation Analysis
The company is expected to achieve an income of 8.12,11.17 and 1.492 billion yuan in 20-22 years, and a net profit of 1.27,1.66 and 208 million yuan, an increase of 4.07%, 30.71% and 25.68% over the same period last year. Among them, the revenue of cloud business in 20-22 years is 0.2,2.0 and 400 million yuan, and the segment valuation gives the company a 21-year target market value of 6.675 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 48.72 yuan, giving a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hint
Market competition risk; overseas business development risk; cloud business development is not as expected; equity pledge risk of major shareholders.