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福达股份(603166)深度报告:国内优质曲轴配套商 内外兼修 成长可期

Fuda shares (603166) in-depth report: domestic high-quality crankshaft manufacturers can repair and grow both inside and outside.

渤海證券 ·  Jun 17, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Main points of investment:

Domestic high-quality crankshaft matching manufacturers, diversified development of products and market

1) the company mainly sells engine crankshaft, automobile clutch, spiral bevel gear, high strength bolts and precision forgings, which provide matching for engine, vehicle factory and axle factory. 2) the company's vehicle customers mainly include BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, etc.; engine customers include Dongfeng Cummins, Hino China, Yuchai shares, etc.; axle customers include Hande axle, etc. Commercial vehicles are the company's main supporting market, accounting for 69.96% in 2019. 3) in 2015-19, the company's revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate of 12.87%, and the corresponding net profit grew at a compound rate of 29.69%, showing a trend of rapid growth as a whole. among them, the company bucked the trend in 2019 when the car market was declining, and net profit increased by 26.87% compared with the same period last year.

New customers and new orders support revenue growth

The company's automotive crankshaft is mainly used for automotive internal combustion engine, there is a 1:1 ratio relationship. Therefore, the sales of downstream automotive internal combustion engines will directly affect the demand of matching crankshafts. The company has actively developed customers, has become Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volvo, Cummins, Hino, Yangma and other international enterprises crankshaft and blank suppliers, and entered SAIC GM, Sinotruk, Fukuda Cummins and other customer supply system. The market scale of automotive crankshaft is large. As the company continues to expand its customer base to bring new orders and increase the R & D and production of high-end products, the market share is expected to continue to grow and profitability will continue to improve. Foreign markets are expected to become the company's medium-and long-term growth point.

Enter the field of large crankshaft and enjoy the rise of quantity and profit in the future.

The company has established a joint venture with Alfen, Germany, the world's largest independent supplier of large crankshafts, to lay out the large crankshaft market, which is mainly used in many fields such as ships, construction machinery and nuclear power generator sets, with considerable market space and high unit price and profit margin of large crankshafts. Therefore, the company actively develops the large crankshaft matching market, which will help to improve the company's growth space and profit margin in the future.

Layout precision forgings business to help reduce cost and increase efficiency

Fuda forging, a wholly owned subsidiary, is mainly engaged in precision forging products. In 2015-19, the output of precision forgings increased from 667100 to 1.6645 million, with an annual compound growth rate of 25.68%, and a corresponding annual compound sales growth rate of 23.17%. Fuda forging pays equal attention to both inside and outside, which effectively extends the company's product industry chain, improves the company's technology and equipment level, helps to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and helps to develop high-quality customers on the outside. With the completion of the forging digital and intelligent forging technology upgrade project and the proposal to increase the construction of large crankshaft blank forgings, the matching capacity of the company's precision forgings will continue to be significantly improved in the future. so as to further help the company to achieve the dual goals of customer development and cost reduction and efficiency.

Profit forecast, covering "overweight" rating for the first time

To sum up, we estimate that the company's operating income in 2020-22 will be 1.567 billion yuan, an increase of 3.47%, 10.06%, 12.97%, and 1.56 million yuan, respectively, an increase of 9.88%, 11.96%, 18.32% and 0.26, 0.290.35 yuan per share, corresponding to the 2020-22 PE, which is double that of 24-22-18. Taking into account the active development of the mid-and high-end market and the layout of the large crankshaft field, the future growth and profit space will be opened, with reference to the A-share comparable company can give an appropriate valuation premium and give a "overweight" rating for the first time.

Risk hints: automobile production and sales are depressed and exceed expectations; customers and large crankshaft market development are lower than expected; steel prices are rising faster than expected

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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