Events:
The company announces the pre-plan of non-public offering shares (revised version). The number of non-public offering shares does not exceed 85.08 million shares, which are issued to two specific objects, Zhao Hui and Haichuang Environmental Protection, with proposed subscription amounts of 500 million and 150 million respectively. It is proposed to use the raised funds of 300 million to repay bank loans and 350 million to supplement working capital.
Main points of investment:
The issue price and the subscription amount of major shareholders will be raised, and Hai Venture Capital will be introduced to strengthen the coordination of the industrial chain. After the adjustment of the company's additional offering plan, the issue price has been changed from 7.55 yuan to 7.64 yuan per share, the subscription amount of major shareholder Zhao Hui has changed from 369 million to 500 million, and Haichuang environmental protection subscription 150 million remains unchanged, demonstrating the participants' confidence in the long-term development of the company. The company introduces Haichuang environmental protection, on the one hand, it can learn from Haichuang in technology and management to improve the project management level of cement kiln collaborative disposal, on the other hand, the company's professional incineration and resource utilization business can form upstream and downstream business coordination with Haichuang environmental protection and reduce production costs.
Qinghai cement supply and demand reverse contribution performance elasticity, the future boom is expected to continue. The layout of the company's cement plate is mainly in Qinghai and supplemented by Guangdong. In 2020, the supply and demand pattern in Qinghai has reversed, the bankruptcy and reorganization of salt lake shares at the supply side has significantly reduced regional production, and the regional key projects on the demand side are expected to start centrally, driving the steady pick-up of actual demand. As of May 22, the high-label price in Xining, Qinghai has reached 500 yuan per ton, 120 yuan higher than the same period last year, which is the province with the highest year-on-year increase in the country. According to our estimates, the company's cement sector performance is expected to achieve 50% growth for the whole year, and considering the two-year construction cycle of major projects, we believe that the cement sector boom is expected to continue in the next two years.
The project in hand is gradually put into production, and environmental protection starts a high-speed growth cycle. Since 2015, the company has laid out environmental protection, cut into the field of hazardous waste with the help of collaborative disposal of cement kilns, and acquired new gold leaves in the field of resource utilization in 2017. at present, the company has formed an omni-directional hazardous waste business layout of coordinated disposal of cement kiln, harmless incineration and landfill, and comprehensive utilization of resources. By the end of 2019, the company has held a total of 21 production lines for hazardous waste disposal. We believe that with the subsequent release of new production capacity and the improvement of the efficiency of existing capacity, the compound growth rate of the company's environmental protection sector is expected to exceed 40%. Start a new growth cycle.
Maintain the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating: we believe that the adjustment of the company's plan reduces the uncertainty of the landing of the plan, but does not affect the long-term value of the company's business. We maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company in 2020-2022 is 946 million yuan, 1.078 billion yuan and 1.217 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to 1.32,1.51,1.70 yuan in 20-22 years. The current share price maintains a "buy" rating at 7.5,6.6and 5.9x PE from 2020 to 2022, respectively.