The company recently announced that in the bidding for the technological transformation project of mail processing centers in seven cities of China Post in Shandong Province, with the outstanding scheme and the comprehensive application of various technologies, successfully won the bid for the technological transformation project of mail processing centers in six prefectures and cities of Dezhou, Liaocheng, Tengzhou, Weihai, Zaozhuang and Zibo. The bid-winning equipment includes matrix sorting system / transmission system, linear sorting machine and supporting transportation equipment and other automatic sorting related products and supporting equipment, with a total bid winning amount of more than 3200 million yuan.
Guoxin computer viewpoint:
The main results are as follows: 1) the growth of delivery volume has led to the automatic transformation of medium-sized network. At present, the permeability is low and the space is large. With the surge of express delivery in recent years, the sorting volume of small and medium-sized logistics outlets has gradually increased. At present, there are about 5000 medium-sized outlets across the country with a daily distribution capacity of 30,000-80,000 pieces, while the penetration rate of automatic sorting is less than 30%. The application market of automatic equipment is gradually opened. According to the total average price of intelligent equipment such as automatic sorting equipment and bubble counting machine is at least 40-5 million yuan per network, it can reach tens of billions of market space at least.
2) since the official launch of logistics automation business in 2019, orders have grown rapidly and the business has formed a scale. The company continues to carry out related logistics automation business cooperation with Shunfeng, JD.com, Post and other customers, and the Post won the bid on the basis of cooperation in 2019. In 2019, the company's logistics automation order reached 80 million yuan, and the order is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2020. The market competition pattern is good, the company wins the bid rate is high, and in the research and development, the channel, the brand and so on the superiority is outstanding, the barrier is deep, the business long-term development may look forward to.
3) verify the company's innovation incubation ability again. Since the second venture in 2015, the company has made continuous breakthroughs in innovation business. At present, financial equipment, logistics information, retail vending machines and other innovative business has been large-scale. At present, the new logistics automation business is also showing an accelerated development trend, once again verifying the company's intelligent equipment research and development capabilities and innovative business incubation capabilities. Taking TPH and CIS as the stepping stone, the company has formed the advantage of industrial chain integration from key components, core modules, whole machine, software to system integration, and has the ability of opto-mechatronics structure design, embedded software development and interface design, so as to provide customers with customized products and services more efficiently, cast product barriers, and have a broad space for growth in the fields of finance, logistics, retail and other equipment.
It is estimated that the operating income from 2020 to 2022 will be RMB 2775, 3500, and the net profit will be RMB 3.86 million, corresponding to the EPS of 0.45, 0.58 and PE of 23.11, 18.13 and 14.26X respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating.
Comments:
Logistics automation business has become a scale, the competition pattern is good, long-term space to open intelligent sorting equipment has been selected by more and more express enterprises, express and logistics industry mostly use slider type, cross belt type and flip plate type. New Beiyang has launched a series of semi-automatic / automatic sorting products (including circular sorting, straight-line sorting, etc.) and supporting equipment and other logistics automation equipment. Taking the cross-belt automatic sorting system as an example, this equipment is higher than the traditional equipment in sorting speed, sorting accuracy and sorting product types. At present, China's automatic sorting equipment is mainly used in large logistics enterprises, the traditional automatic sorting equipment is not only oriented to large site sorting, equipment adaptability is not strong, can not achieve small network adaptation, in addition, the reality of large investment and high operating costs also makes small and medium-sized enterprises and small outlets equipped with automatic sorting system faced with all kinds of difficulties.
Therefore, the low-speed version of New Beiyang in the automatic sorting equipment can largely enable small outlets to achieve low-cost, fast and efficient layout of intelligent sorting, and improve efficiency and performance.
The market space of mid-end logistics automation business reaches tens of billions of yuan, and the penetration rate is still low. The company faces about 5000 medium-sized outlets with a daily distribution capacity of 30,000-80,000 pieces, automatic sorting equipment and bubble counting machines and other intelligent equipment, the total average price is at least 40-5 million yuan per network, entering into tens of billions of market space. In this mid-market, there is only about 30% of the conversion rate, and there is still 70% room.
With the arrival of the "big ware era", the new Beiyang heavy cargo static bubble counting machine helps to boost the new speed of logistics. The new Beiyang heavy cargo static bubble counting machine BWM-S3000 is a static article attribute collection product which integrates the functions of item size measurement, weighing, scanning code, photography and so on. Mainly used in the logistics industry, it can quickly measure the volume, weight and other information of the whole consignment, and upload the information to the background system in real time to provide basis and support for cost settlement, warehousing planning, goods sorting and tracking, transportation optimization and so on. It has the advantages of high precision, fast measurement, complete performance, high performance-to-price ratio, firmness and durability, stability and reliability.
The competition pattern in the mid-market is good, and the big manufacturers have not entered. Dematek and others focus on the high-end logistics automation market, which is used in large sorting centers, while the mid-market competitors are small and medium-sized competitors such as Zihongda, Lisheng, Baide and so on. Dematek and other well-known international manufacturers lack local competitiveness, while domestic medium-sized network customers are more sensitive to the price of solutions, and have higher requirements for customized equipment and solutions, and have more demand for localized services. the localization service capacity of international manufacturers is limited and can not effectively enter the mid-market.
The company has an outstanding competitive advantage. From the perspective of company size, the current logistics automation competitors are relatively small, and New Beiyang is more favored by customers because of its scale advantage, service advantage and brand effect of listed companies. From the perspective of product research and development, in the mid-market, the company began to get involved in R & D in 2017 and officially released relevant logistics automation products in 2019, which is equivalent to the entry time of its competitors, and the company has outstanding advantages in R & D personnel scale and R & D capability. the products have strong competitiveness. From the perspective of operating channels, the company has accumulated a lot of customer service experience of logistics companies in the traditional thermal printing and scanning business and logistics information business. with Shunfeng, Sitong Yida, JD.com and other customers to maintain a good cooperative relationship and service reputation, outstanding channel advantages.
Since the new Beiyang formally launched the logistics automation business in 2019, the order has grown rapidly and the business has formed a scale. The company continues to carry out related logistics automation business cooperation with Shunfeng, JD.com, Post and other customers, and the Post won the bid on the basis of cooperation in 2019. In 2019, the company's logistics automation order reached 80 million yuan, and the order is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2020. The winning rate of the company is high, and its long-term development can be expected. The company is expected to continue to transform to the role of logistics automation transformation integrator in the future.
Risk hint
The epidemic has an impact on the company's delivery and acceptance; it is possible that the investment pace of downstream customers is not as fast as expected.
