Investment tips for this issue:
According to the comprehensive analysis of Dema technology fundamentals and comparable companies in the same industry, we expect the Dema technology offering price range may be: 25.10 yuan-27.20 yuan. In the case of neutral expectations, the offline placement ratios of Ke A, Ke B and Ke C under the Dema Science and Technology Network are 0.0454%, 0.0446% and 0.0323% respectively, and the funds allocated to the single account under the middle caliber of the expected price range are 107000 yuan, 105000 yuan and 76000 yuan respectively.
The domestic leading enterprise in the field of automatic logistics transportation and sorting equipment, with an AHP score of 2.90, is located at 46% of the total score. The company is a leading enterprise in the field of domestic automatic logistics transportation and sorting equipment, and its products are widely used in many key areas of national economy, such as e-commerce, express logistics, clothing, medicine and so on. The company attaches great importance to the development of high-end logistics equipment technology, and has formed an integrated industrial chain competitive advantage of core component design, key equipment manufacturing, software development and system integration. Transportation and sorting technology, drive technology and other key core technologies have reached the international advanced level. In 2016-2017, the company's transportation and sorting equipment revenue accounted for 6.60% and 7.43% of the national transportation and sorting equipment sales respectively, with a market share in the forefront of the industry. at present, customers include JD.com, SUNING, Amazon.Com Inc, e-bay, Huawei and other industry benchmark enterprises, as well as today's international, Datt integration and other domestic and foreign well-known logistics system integrators and logistics equipment manufacturers. After taking into account the liquidity premium, the company's AHP score is 2.90, at 46 per cent of the total score, at the middle level of Science and Technology Innovation Board's listed new shares.
The PE valuation of Dema Technology in 2019 is expected to be 33.59-36.40 times. Considering that Dema Technology comparable company Huachangda lost a lot of money in 2019 and its PE valuation is negative, it is not included in the scope of comparable company valuation. based on the 2019 homed net profit and the closing price on May 15, 2020, the average PE valuation of the remaining four A-share comparable companies is 44.64 times. Dema Technology is a leading enterprise in the field of domestic automatic logistics transportation and sorting equipment, with the competitive advantage of integrated industrial chain, the level of technology reaching the international advanced level, and a wide range of downstream applications, rich and high-quality customer resources; compared with comparable companies, the company has an advantage in performance growth and R & D investment growth. However, the company's operating performance is greatly affected by downstream industries and highly dependent on government subsidies, and the increase in the proportion of accounts receivable to current assets during the reporting period leads to an increase in bad debt risk or liquidity risk. In addition, the company expects operating income and non-return net profit to change by-2% to 5% and-5% to 44% respectively in the first half of 2020 compared with the same period last year, and its AHP score ranks in the middle of Science and Technology Innovation Board's listed new shares. To sum up, the diluted PE valuation of Dema Technology in 2019 is a discount of 18% to 25% compared with the average of comparable companies, that is, the expected diluted PE in 2019 is 33.59-36.40 times, the corresponding total market capitalization range is 2.15 billion-2.33 billion yuan, and the corresponding price range is 25.10-27.20 yuan.
Risk tips: (1) quotation: we should be on guard against the risk of elimination of high quotation and invalidity of low price. (2) Corporate fundamentals: it is necessary to guard against the bad debt risk or liquidity risk caused by the large fluctuation of operating performance affected by downstream industries, the high degree of dependence on government subsidies, and the increase in the proportion of accounts receivable to current assets.
