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伟能集团(1608.HK):缅甸合资项目如期迈向商运

招銀國際 ·  May 29, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  We recently communicated with the company about the progress of the company's Myanmar project. According to Myanmar news information and management updates, we believe that the company itself and several key joint ventures with China Technology will be put into operation in the first half of the year as scheduled, in line with the guidelines previously given by management. Furthermore, based on the expectations of the joint venture project and the Myanmar government's fixed electricity price PPA, under the current low LNG price level, we believe that many of the new projects that Vigneng will put into operation in the near future will receive good returns. Based on Myanmar's power development plans for the next few years, we believe Vigner's IBO business in Myanmar is sustainable, and there are still opportunities to develop more projects. Our target price for DCF was raised to HK$4.8 per share, corresponding to the 2020/21 price-earnings forecast of 18.4/10.6 times. Maintain the buy rating. The Myanmar project is generally on schedule and is in line with the guidelines. Recent news reports show that due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and control measures, several LNG power generation projects have been delayed to a certain extent. According to the Irrawaddy report, Myanmar's Deputy Minister of Energy stated on May 19 that the company 1) the 400MW joint venture project in the Thaketa region will operate at full capacity at the end of May, 2) the 350 MW joint venture project in the Thanlyin region will begin operation in June, 3) the 150 MW joint venture project in the Kyauphyu region will be postponed to September, 4) the 20.54 MW project, which is wholly owned in Kyun Chaung region, has been extended to May 18-24 Business travel for the week. Management expects PPAs for these projects to be signed within the next few weeks, and the signing of PPAs will be an important sign that these projects will be commercialized within the first half of the year. A joint venture agreement was signed with China Technology Corporation. The company signed a joint venture agreement with China Technology Corporation on the scale of the 900 contract project in Myanmar. The joint venture will invest a total of US$180 million in equity capital, of which VPower will assume US$90 million (corresponding to HK$702 million). The company invested HK$225 million at the end of March and plans to meet remaining capital investment requirements through its own capital and loan resources. The company stated that there is no short-term equity financing requirement for investment in this joint venture project. Based on our expectation that most of the production capacity of the joint venture project will be able to be put into operation in June, we believe that the joint venture project will contribute part of the profit to the company in the first half of the year. Explore more market opportunities in Myanmar. We have noticed that the joint venture agreement between the company and China Technology Corporation contains various clauses to determine the coordination of the interests of both Weineng and China Technology Corporation, including restrictions on the transfer of shares in the joint venture company and anti-competition clauses. Based on our electricity development plan for Myanmar (electricity consumption continues to grow in double digits), we believe the joint venture will have room to explore more LNG power generation project opportunities in Myanmar. Lower LNG spot prices help companies secure supply. Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Asian market is currently showing a significant oversupply trend. According to data from Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the LNG spot market price in January-April fell 28.0-54.7% year on year. We believe that a lower spot market price environment will help companies lock in LNG supply and reduce price risk. Due to the 3 LNG projects held by the joint venture project having 1) significant scale effects, 2) tight implementation time requirements, and 3) facing the current relaxed LNG price environment, we believe that the profit performance of the joint venture will be significantly higher than the IBO projects currently held by the company. Earnings growth will accelerate in the second half of 2020. In addition to the progress of new projects and joint ventures in Myanmar, management also updated the progress of other IBO projects. Overall, we believe that the progress of the company's IBO project is in line with our previous expectations, and our profit outlook for the company remains unchanged. Based on our revenue and cost assumptions for the second half of the year, we expect a profit of HK$178 million for the first half of the year, up 24.8% year over year. In the second half of the year, due to the contribution of new projects and the profit contribution of Myanmar joint ventures, we expect the company's profit growth rate to accelerate significantly. The DCF target price increased by 47.7% to HK$4.80 per share. The company's stock price has risen by more than 40% since our previous update, along with a significant increase in trading volume (average turnover in March increased from HK$2.27 million to HK$3.82 million on April 1). We believe the value of the company's IBO business in the Southeast Asian market is being recognized by the market. We incorporated the company's contribution from the joint venture in Myanmar into the DCF model forecast. Our target price for DCF increased by 47.7% to HK$4.80 per share, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 18.4/10.6 times in 2020/21, maintaining the buying rating.

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