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金达威(002626):维生素A市场提振 公司保健品销售情况良好

長城證券 ·  Jun 9, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Core view: BASF stopped quoting in China, and the VA market boosted; Coenzyme Q10 remained high. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the price of vitamin A has been rising and then falling since this year. Affected by the epidemic in the first quarter, domestic manufacturers had a low starting load, and some factories did not have much inventory. Coupled with the impact of logistics, some traders feared production restrictions and actively prepared goods, which in turn boosted VA market prices. By mid-April, due to the insane preparation of goods in the terminal market in the early stages, most customers had already fully signed demand orders for the second quarter. Market demand pulled back to a certain extent, and prices fell accordingly. Since June, BASF has stopped pricing in China, which may affect supply in the second half of the year. VA prices have begun to rise in the past two days. Currently, the VA market price is 455 yuan/kg, the average price since this year is 433 yuan/kg; the VD3 market price is 190 yuan/kg, with an average price of 203 yuan/kg since this year. The price of CoQ10 rebounded sharply in the fourth quarter last year, so the full-year gross margin was 9.8% higher than the semi-annual gross margin. Up to now, CoQ10 has maintained a high price for customers, the company has a cost advantage, and the gross margin level will be higher. Investment suggestions: This year, Jindawei CoQ10 is expected to have profits of more than 600 million yuan, vitamin A and D3 profits of about 600 million yuan, and brand health products profits of more than 100 million yuan. According to segmented valuations, coenzyme Q10, vitamin A, and D3 were valued 15 times due to product price increases and segment leader premiums, while branded health products were valued 30 times. According to the company's performance briefing, sales of health products did not decrease but increased during the pandemic. Therefore, the EPS in 2020 was slightly raised to 2.04 yuan. The company's EPS in 2020-2022 is expected to be 2.04, 2.35, and 2.60 yuan, corresponding to PE 11.3 times, 9.8 times, and 8.8 times, respectively. The target market value for 2020 is 20 billion yuan, and the corresponding target price is 32.47 yuan. Currently, the stock price is still about 41% of the target price, maintaining a “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: market expansion falls short of expectations, downstream demand falls short of expectations, product prices drop sharply

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