Investment tips for this issue:
According to the comprehensive analysis of Fudan Zhangjiang fundamentals and comparable companies in the same industry, we expect that the offering price of Fudan Zhangjiang may be in the range of 9.44 yuan-10.20 yuan. In the case of neutral expectations, the offline placement ratios of Section A, Section B and Section C under Fudan Zhangjiang net are 0.0635%, 0.0614% and 0.0417% respectively, and the funds allocated to the single account under the middle caliber of the expected issuing price range are 236900 yuan, 229000 yuan and 155500 yuan respectively.
The leading company in the field of photodynamic drugs, with an AHP score of 2.50, ranks 39 per cent of the total score. Fudan Zhangjiang is a domestic innovative pharmaceutical company characterized by photodynamic therapy. Ella, the main product, is the first photodynamic drug used in the treatment of condyloma acuminatum in the world, and ranks first in the market share in the treatment of condyloma acuminatum for many years. Ribodo is the first domestic imitation of Doxil, the first anticancer liposome drug in the world, and ranks third in terminal sales of doxorubicin preparations in 2018, with a market share of 19.79%. Fumeta is the first photodynamic drug for port wine stains in the world. it is a national first-class new drug with new drug targets, new compounds and new indications. The company's photodynamic technology is in the leading level in the world, and has advanced nanotechnology, genetic engineering technology and oral solid preparation technology and other core technologies, realizing the industrialization of research projects in the field of skin venereal diseases and tumors. At present, among the research products of the company, the Hympofen product used for the treatment of port wine stains is registered in the United States; aminolevulinic acid hydrochloride for the treatment of cervical diseases infected by HPV has entered the II clinical study and will become the exclusive product in China once it is approved to be listed on the market. Taking into account the liquidity premium factor, the company's AHP score is 2.50points, located in the 39% quantile of the total score, in the middle and lower reaches of Science and Technology Innovation Board's IPO in the same industry.
The PE valuation of Zhangjiang in Fudan is expected to be 43.31-46.79 times in 2019. Fudan Zhangjiang is a domestic innovative pharmaceutical company characterized by photodynamic therapy, with a number of core technologies, leading in the world in photodynamic technology, leading in the market share of Ella and Ribodo, and has a certain competitive advantage in the field of skin venereal diseases and tumors. Compared with comparable companies, the company has higher size and faster performance growth, but it is faced with risk factors such as relatively single product category, high customer concentration and failure of new product research and development. at the same time, its AHP score is in the middle and lower reaches of Science and Technology Innovation Board's IPO in the same industry after considering the level of liquidity premium. Taken into consideration, the average PE valuation of Fudan Zhangjiang is higher than that of Science and Technology Innovation Board's comparable listed companies (excluding the IPO PE valuation of more than 100 times, the average is 49.78 times). The discount of 5% to 12%, that is, the diluted PE value of the expected net return of Fudan Zhangjiang in 2019 is 43.31-46.79 times, and the corresponding total market value is 9.846 billion-10.639 billion yuan. The corresponding expected offering price ranges from 9.44 yuan to 10.20 yuan. In addition, as of June 2, Fudan Zhangjiang Port shares closed at 5.34 Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to 4.90 yuan, Fudan Zhangjiang expected offering price range corresponding to the premium rate of AH shares is likely to be at 92.7% 108.2%, lower than the latest AH shares premium 178.0%, roughly the same as the China General account's latest AH shares premium rate of 93.23%. And considering that the company's expected offering price is low, it is expected that it still has some room to rise after listing.
Risk tips: (1) quotation: Fudan Zhangjiang is a two-step cumulative bid inquiry, the second round of declaration must be consistent with the first round, and attention should be paid to avoid the second round of declared funds exceeding the product scale leading to the invalidity of the second round of quotations; in addition, we should also be on guard against the risk of overreporting and low price invalidation. (2) company fundamentals: we need to guard against risks such as relatively single product category, high customer concentration, failure of new product research and development, and so on.
